The March/April 2005 Foreign Affairs has a interesting analysis by Ken Pollack and Ray Takeyh. Pollack‘s biography is here (CIA 1988-1995, National Security Council 1995-2001). He is now at Brookings.
The "carrot and stick" diplomacy suggested here could work. It is hard to see how it will succeed unless Europe gets on board. Since 1979 Europe (not the UK) has refused to even consider passing up any business opportunity with Tehran. So Iran has been able to play off Europe against the US/UK, acquiring all the technology needed for their nuclear ambitions while paying no economic penalty.
The strategy outlined here requires that Tehran understand they will pay heavily to continue with their weapons program:
This split provides an opportunity for the United States, and its allies in Europe and Asia, to forge a new strategy to derail Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons. The West should use its economic clout to strengthen the hand of Iranian pragmatists, who could then argue for slowing, limiting, or shelving Tehran’s nuclear program in return for the trade, aid, and investment that Iran badly needs. Only if the mullahs recognize that they have a stark choice–they can have nuclear weapons or a healthy economy, but not both–might they give up their nuclear dreams. With concern over Iran’s nuclear aspirations growing, the United States and its allies now have a chance to present Iran with just such an ultimatum.
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