SeekerBlog

Failure in Iraq today will require far greater sacrifices tomorrow in far more desperate circumstances. Committing to victory now will demonstrate America’s strength to our friends and enemies around the world.



Fred Kagan led the AEI study group which prepared this report – due to be published in January. A summary was presented in D.C. on Dec 14th. The slides from that presentation are available in PDF here. Kagan’s group is recommending a very different strategy than the ISG, critics or MSM pundits — that of providing security to Iraqi citizens in Baghdad. Given the limits on available resources that means changing the mission priority from training the ISF to clear and hold Baghdad.

Personally I have thought a major weakness of Coalition policy from the beginning is the lack of focus on providing basic security to Iraqis. I think Kagan’s plan deserves a hearing.

Some background for the Dec 14th presentation:

The president is gearing up for a major change of strategy in Iraq. Now that the Iraq Study Group has reported its findings, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Peter Pace will provide his recommendations, and President George W. Bush will address the nation next week. Democratic leaders advocate withdrawal, the Iraq Study Group recommends withdrawal within fifteen months, and the military has yet to speak out. But which course will the president take?

At this crucial turning point, AEI will present its own report, “Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success.” The study calls for a sustained surge of U.S. forces to secure and protect critical areas of Baghdad. AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan directed the report in consultation with military and regional experts, including former acting Army chief of staff General Jack Keane, former Afghanistan coalition commander Lieutenant General David Barno, and other officers involved with the successful operations of the Third Armored Cavalry Regiment in Tal Afar.

At this event, Mr. Kagan and General Keane will present the report, which outlines how the United States can win in Iraq, and reinforces the idea that victory is the only acceptable outcome. Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution will comment.

I’m keen to hear Ken Pollack’s comments – hopefully there will be a transcript. From the presentation, here’s the beef of the proposal:

We must change our focus from training Iraqi soldiers to securing the Iraqi population and containing the rising violence. Securing the population has never been the primary mission of the U.S. military effort in Iraq, and now it must become the first priority.



We must send more American combat forces into Iraq and especially into Baghdad to support this operation. A surge of seven Army brigades and Marine regiments to support clear-and-hold operations starting in the Spring of 2007 is necessary, possible, and will be sufficient.

These forces, partnered with Iraqi units, will clear critical Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shi’a neighborhoods, primarily on the west side of the city.

After the neighborhoods have been cleared, U.S. soldiers and marines, again partnered with Iraqis, will remain behind to maintain security.

As security is established, reconstruction aid will help to reestablish normal life and, working through Iraqi officials, will strengthen Iraqi local government

This approach requires a national commitment to victory in Iraq:

The ground forces must accept longer tours for several years. National Guard units will have to accept increased deployments during this period.

Equipment shortages must be overcome by transferring equipment from non-deploying active duty, National Guard, and reserve units to those about to deploy. Military industry must be mobilized to provide replacement equipment sets urgently.

The president must request a dramatic increase in reconstruction aid for Iraq. Responsibility and accountability for reconstruction must be assigned to established agencies. The president must insist upon the completion of reconstruction projects. The president should also request a dramatic increase in CERP funds.

The president must request a substantial increase in ground forces end strength. This increase is vital to sustaining the morale of the combat forces by ensuring that relief is on the way. The president must issue a personal call for young Americans to volunteer to fight in the decisive conflict of this age.