“Early detection, early response” is central to infectious disease control, and thus a high priority of TED Prize winner and executive director of Google.org Larry Brilliant.
Google.org has now made an innovative example of early-detection publicly accessible with Flu Trends. Take a close look at the associated animation — which illustrates the early warning potential of the Flu Trends data. Compared to traditional CDC alerts, detection two weeks earlier is a very big deal w/r/t containing a future influenza pandemic.
…So why bother with estimates from aggregated search queries? It turns out that traditional flu surveillance systems take 1-2 weeks to collect and release surveillance data, but Google search queries can be automatically counted very quickly. By making our flu estimates available each day, Google Flu Trends may provide an early-warning system for outbreaks of influenza.
It will be interesting to see if the media framing of this innovation centers around “privacy invasion“. Here’s some of the real-world stuff going on to ensure privacy is NOT an issue:
…Since we launched yesterday, the response from the medical community has been positive. “The earlier the warning, the earlier prevention and control measures can be put in place,” said Dr. Lyn Finelli of the influenza division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to The New York Times. “[T]his could prevent cases of influenza.” You can check out the tool for yourself.
We couldn’t have built this flu detection system without analyzing historical patterns. Because flu season is different every year, just a few months of data wouldn’t have done the trick. For example, the 2003-2004 flu season was unusually severe in many regions. The data from that season was especially robust and allowed us to discover a more accurate, reliable set of flu-related terms. To learn more about how we built the system, see this page on how Flu Trends works.
Because we’re committed to protecting your privacy, we made sure that the searches that we analyze for Google Flu Trends are not drawn from personally-identifiable search histories but rather from an aggregated set of hundreds of billions of searches.
In order to provide a rough geographic breakdown of potential flu outbreaks, we use IP address information from our server logs to make a best guess about where queries originate. To protect your privacy, we anonymize those IP addresses at nine months. And we don’t provide this aggregated, anonymized data to third parties. For more information about the privacy protections for Flu Trends check out our FAQs and privacy policy.
This is just the first launch in what we hope will be several public service applications of Google Trends in the future. And as we continue to think of ways to use aggregated and anonymized search data in helpful ways, we’re also committed to safeguarding our users’ privacy.
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