Varian believes that a new era is dawning for what you might call the datarati—and it’s all about harnessing supply and demand. “What’s ubiquitous and cheap?” Varian asks. “Data.” And what is scarce? The analytic ability to utilize that data. As a result, he believes that the kind of technical person who once would have wound up working for a hedge fund on Wall Street will now work at a firm whose business hinges on making smart, daring choices—decisions based on surprising results gleaned from algorithmic spelunking and executed with the confidence that comes from really doing the math.
Wired has an excellent piece based on Hal Varian’s talk at the AEA meeting in SF. This is one of the best general-readership pieces I have seen on Google’s secret sauce for auctions in everything:
In the midst of financial apocalypse, the gadflies and gurus of the global marketplace are gathered at the San Francisco Hilton for the annual meeting of the American Economics Association. The mood is similar to a seismologist convention in the wake of the Big One. Yet surprisingly, one of the most popular sessions has nothing to do with toxic assets, derivatives, or unemployment curves.
“I’m going to talk about online auctions,” says Hal Varian, the session’s first speaker. Varian is a lanky 62-year-old professor at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business and School of Information, but these days he’s best known as Google’s chief economist. This morning’s crowd hasn’t come for predictions about the credit market; they want to hear about Google’s secret sauce.
Varian is an expert on what may be the most successful business idea in history: AdWords, Google’s unique method for selling online advertising. AdWords analyzes every Google search to determine which advertisers get each of up to 11 “sponsored links” on every results page. It’s the world’s biggest, fastest auction, a never-ending, automated, self-service version of Tokyo’s boisterous Tsukiji fish market, and it takes place, Varian says, “every time you search.” He never mentions how much revenue advertising brings in. But Google is a public company, so anyone can find the number: It was $21 billion last year.
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Googlenomics actually comes in two flavors: macro and micro. The macroeconomic side involves some of the company’s seemingly altruistic behavior, which often baffles observers. Why does Google give away products like its browser, its apps, and the Android operating system for mobile phones? Anything that increases Internet use ultimately enriches Google, Varian says. And since using the Web without using Google is like dining at In-N-Out without ordering a hamburger, more eyeballs on the Web lead inexorably to more ad sales for Google.
The microeconomics of Google is more complicated. Selling ads doesn’t generate only profits; it also generates torrents of data about users’ tastes and habits, data that Google then sifts and processes in order to predict future consumer behavior, find ways to improve its products, and sell more ads. This is the heart and soul of Googlenomics. It’s a system of constant self-analysis: a data-fueled feedback loop that defines not only Google’s future but the future of anyone who does business online.
In other news, five thirty-eight.com’s Nate Silver has perhaps the greatest blog post title of the year, featuring seekerblog guru/fetish object Greg Mankiw (and his grandmother!…No, really! I’m not kidding!).
The title?
Grandmother Of World’s 23rd-Best Economist Posthumously Offended By Sonia Sotomayor’s Spending Habits; Will Obama Withdraw Nomination?”
Read. Enjoy. Bask in the received wisdom of Mankiw’s Grandmother’s frugal advice – and Nate Silver’s vivisection thereof.