Brad Setser looks at Japan, China trade – concluding with this:
[...]
The best that can be said of Japan’s May trade data is that Japan’s exports to China aren’t down as much as Japan’s exports to the US and Europe.
Shipments to the U.S. fell 45.4 percent in May after dropping 46.3 percent in April, the ministry said. Exports to Europe slid 45.4 percent from 45.3 percent.
The y/y comparison will get more favorable soon. But there is now real way to put all that positive gloss on Japan’s 41% year over year fall in exports. It is an epic fall.
Japan’s May 2009 exports were even a bit lower than its April 2009 exports. There may be some benign explanation for the slight dip in May, but I don’t think there is any way to suggest that the Japan’s May trade data suggests a robust global recovery. [From Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand]
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