Ari Schulman is providing excellent coverage of the conference. I agree that evolutionary programs are the best bet (not a sure bet). And first in a simulated world. Once that is accomplished, maybe on to robots? Once you leave the pure software realm things get a lot more difficult. Check out this post on the David Chalmers presentation:
(…) Chalmers isn’t talking about the philosophical requirements of simulation. He’s breaking down the claims behind the exponential growth claim of Singularity-pushers — the idea that once we make our computers have a certain level of intelligence (something past human-level), the pace will take off as the intelligence improves upon itself. This requires, he says, an extendible method, which neither biological reproduction nor brain emulation is.
The only way the Singularity will happen, he says, is through self-amplifying intelligence. The general requirement is just that an intelligence be able to create an intelligence smarter than itself. The original intelligence itself need not be very smart. Direct human methods won’t do it. The most plausible way, he says, is simulated evolution. If we arrive at above-human intelligence, he says, it seems likely it will take place in a simulated world, not in a robot or in our own physical environment.
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[UPDATE: Ray Kurzweil, in the talk he gives to end the first day of the conference, remarks on some of Chalmers's comments.]
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