More from Robert Rapier on his “Long Recession” thesis: there is a strong correlation between rising oil prices and recession.
Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich recently warned that the U.S. is likely headed back into recession:
Why aren’t Americans being told the truth about the economy? We’re heading in the direction of a double dip — but you’d never know it if you listened to the upbeat messages coming out of Wall Street and Washington.
Consumers are 70 percent of the American economy, and consumer confidence is plummeting. It’s weaker today on average than at the lowest point of the Great Recession.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey shows a 10 point decline in March — the tenth largest drop on record. Part of that drop is attributable to rising fuel and food prices. A separate Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence, just released, shows consumer confidence at a five-month low — and a large part is due to expectations of fewer jobs and lower wages in the months ahead.
So is Reich correct? Are we headed back toward recession? We should be so lucky.