Toyota Bets Against Tesla With New Hydrogen Car

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Personal hero and hard-nosed engineer Elon Musk calls them “fool cells”. Contrast the Musk view to what seems to be a very big bet by very-smart-company Toyota. Here’s Fool.com “A big bet that puts Toyota at odds with Tesla“: Every time I examine the hype for the “hydrogen economy” I shake my head. Why would Toyota cancel their deal with Tesla while announcing a “new hydrogen fuel cell car (that) will start arriving at dealers sometime next year”?

The Fool quotes Bloomberg “the car is expected to be called the “Mirai,” the Japanese word for “the future”.” That’s appropriate because the “F” in FCV has so far stood for “10 years in the Future”.

In “Tesla Trumps Toyota: Why Hydrogen Cars Can’t Compete With Pure Electric Cars” Joe Romm argues the practical and economic superiority of BEVs over FCVs (Battery Electric Vehicles over Fuel Cell Vehicles). Good arguments — let me know what you think.

In the comments to Joe’s Energy Collective piece there are a number of useful comments. Especially this one by regular contributor Roger Arnold on hydrogen economics and footprint: 

(1) If you’re talking about the most economical and widely implemented production method for hydrogen (i.e., from reforming of natural gas), then the carbon footprint for the FCV is substantially worse than if the gas were used directly in an IC engine. You’ve gone to a lot of trouble and expense for a worse result.

(2) If, instead, you’re talking about the more expensive route of producing hydrogen by electrolysis of water using zero-carbon electricity, then you could get two to three times better mileage per kWh by using that electricity to charge batteries rather than make hydrogen.

The main potential advantages that FCVs can deliver over BEVs are driving range and fast refueling. But those are non-issues for the commuting and shopping trips that comprise the overwhelming bulk of miles driven. Going on a road trip? Then rent a gasoline vehicle for that purpose. With the coming era of autonomous vehicles, the rental agency will deliver the vehicle to your driveway, and drive it back to their lot after you’ve returned home.

And this comment by Nathan Wilson:

Fuel cell vehicles have momentum because of the hype. If we launched a petroleum phase out tomorrow, and hydrogen FCVs, BEVs, and ammonia ICE cars had to compete in the market, I would expect 80% of the sales to go to ammonia, 19% to BEVs, and 1% for hydrogen FCVs. This is mostly based on sticker price, but also on the much easier infrastructure situation for ammonia versus hydrogen (ammonia cars can be dual fuel with gasoline backup, but HFVC cannot; ammonia can be transported by truck, but H2 cannot).

The idea that any technology we like can be made cost competitive is appealing, but has no basis in reality.

3 thoughts on “Toyota Bets Against Tesla With New Hydrogen Car

  1. Those betting against Fuel Cells think they are smarter than the top engineers at Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and Mercedes. Go for it.

    • As you can tell I’m not following fuel cell activity. Fuel is hydrogen? Or methane, or …? Do you know of any quality publications on economics, scalability? Is this a subsidy play?

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