Archive for July, 2005

Phil Carter: A Guantanamo Exit Strategy

The very word Guantanamo carries a negative connotation throughout much of the world, one that is antithetical to American values and America’s strategy of spreading freedom and democracy. It’s time for the United States to cut its losses there, while salvaging what it can.

Attorney Phil Carter (government contracts and international law for the LA firm of McKenna Long & Aldridge) and Intel Dump blogger, wrote these suggestions for the July Foreign Policy.

His analysis deserves some objective debate. The outline headings are:

  1. Get Congress off the Sidelines
  2. Clarify the President’s War Power
  3. Determine Who’s Who
  4. Embed Reporters at Guantánamo
  5. Retain the Most Dangerous
  6. Send the Rest Home

For those of us without both access and “need to know” it is a challenge to assess the overall interrogation policy. My working hypothesis, from all the sources I’ve been able to access, is that administration and military policy has been carefully designed but extraordinarily poorly explained. From my research I am quite confident it is not as flawed as trumpeted in the press. The just released independent report on Gitmo is clear: Only Three Violations Of Rules At Gitmo - No Torture

E.g., if challenged in the Comments, I’ll search up my source on the original Bush directive that states that illegal combatant Afghanistan detainees, while not entitled, are to be treated as if they are entitled
to Geneva Convention protocols.

Phil’s thesis, which I believe is accurate, is that the public relations have been such a disaster that the Guantanamo operation is a net-net liability. In addition to the headlined six themes, his conclusion is that the function of Guantanamo should be relocated to new facilities, perhaps Diego Garcia and separate conflict-specific facilities in secure areas of Iraq or Afghanistan.

A confidently-held speculation: had the U.S. sponsored Phil’s #4 “Embed Reporters
at Guantanamo” the media frenzy might not have developed - and if it did, would certainly
have been far more factually founded.

Iraq: Facts vs Failure

The invaluable Bill Roggio just posted an excellent analysis on this topic at his The Fourth Rail. For the in-depth researcher, Bill has included a host of links, including a map keyed to towns that are now under Coalition security control. Excerpts:

The media’s portrayal of Iraq as a miserable failure proceeds apace…

The claims the insurgency is increasing in strength are not supported by the facts. The only metrics the news outlets seem to be using are the number of attacks, and the casualties incurred by al Qaeda mass casualty attacks. But what is not explained is why the number of attacks is increasing. Coalition forces are moving further into the heart of the insurgency’s area of operations in Western Iraq and the Anbar province (click on the map for cities and towns in Western Iraq that have come und Coalition control; Global Security has a list of basing, but this does not reflect movement into Rawah and other areas).

The recent deployments to Rawah, Hit, Ramadi and Haditha is placing pressure on the insurgency, forcing them to attempt to eject Coalition forces from the region or lose their established bases. The mass casualty attacks in Baghdad and the kidnapping of foreign diplomats are an attempt to destabilize the regime and place pressure on the US and allies to withdraw from Iraq before the constitution can be completed and the next round of elections are held.

If the claims the insurgency is growing in strength are true, then why are Coalition forces moving deeper into Anbar, with what in military terms are essentially little resistance? If what the Sunday Herald claims is true, why would Zarqawi redeploy his foot soldiers when his rear area is in danger of slipping from his grasp? The advance of US forces in Western Anbar would only provide Zarqawi with a target rich environment - more US infidel solders to kill and a greater opportunity to humiliate the Great Satan. Like much of the media’s flawed analysis of the situation in Iraq, the reasons to believe Zarqawi is shifting forces from Iraq as his area of operations decrease and his targets of opportunity increase are bourn out of a failure in logic, the need to proclaim failure, or both.

Olivier Roy: Why Do They Hate Us? Not Because of Iraq

if the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine are at the core of the radicalization, why are there virtually no Afghans, Iraqis or Palestinians among the terrorists?

This short essay by French terrorism expert Olivier Roy should be read carefully. If the New York Times essay has fallen behind the wall, see here at International Herald Tribune. Once you digest Roy’s accurate history you will find it very difficult to continue to accept the myth that Islamofascism will fade if only the west would give Israel to the Palestinians, and of course withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan. Excerpts:

WHILE yesterday’s explosions on London’s subway and bus lines were thankfully far less serious than those of two weeks ago, they will lead many to raise a troubling question: has Britain (and Spain as well) been "punished" by Al Qaeda for participating in the American-led military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan? While this is a reasonable line of thinking, it presupposes the answer to a broader and more pertinent question: Are the roots of Islamic terrorism in the Middle Eastern conflicts?

If the answer is yes, the solution is simple to formulate, although not to achieve: leave Afghanistan and Iraq, solve the Israel-Palestine conflict. But if the answer is no, as I suspect it is, we should look deeper into the radicalization of young, Westernized Muslims….

From the beginning, Al Qaeda’s fighters were global jihadists, and their favored battlegrounds have been outside the Middle East: Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chechnya and Kashmir. For them, every conflict is simply a part of the Western encroachment on the Muslim ummah, the worldwide community of believers.

Second, if the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine are at the core of the radicalization, why are there virtually no Afghans, Iraqis or Palestinians among the terrorists? Rather, the bombers are mostly from the Arabian Peninsula, North Africa, Egypt and Pakistan - or they are Western-born converts to Islam. Why would a Pakistani or a Spaniard be more angry than an Afghan about American troops in Afghanistan? It is precisely because they do not care about Afghanistan as such, but see the United States involvement there as part of a global phenomenon of cultural domination.

What was true for the first generation of Al Qaeda is also relevant for the present generation: even if these young men are from Middle Eastern or South Asian families, they are for the most part Westernized Muslims living or even born in Europe who turn to radical Islam. Moreover, converts are to be found in almost every Qaeda cell: they did not turn fundamentalist because of Iraq, but because they felt excluded from Western society (this is especially true of the many converts from the Caribbean islands, both in Britain and France). "Born again" or converts, they are rebels looking for a cause. They find it in the dream of a virtual, universal ummah, the same way the ultraleftists of the 1970’s (the Baader-Meinhof Gang, the Italian Red Brigades) cast their terrorist actions in the name of the "world proletariat" and "Revolution" without really caring about what would happen after.

Michael Barone: Bush bashing fizzles

Michael Barone (bio) has proven to be a reliable, balanced commentator (my take). He has two qualities rare amongst journalists:

  1. Critical thinking.
  2. A thorough reading of true history (as opposed to post-modernist interpretations).

This short essay for U.S. News & World Report is a useful review of the history and a status report.

This summer, one big story is replaced by another — the London bombings July 7, the speculation that Karl Rove illegally named a covert CIA agent, the nomination of John Roberts to the Supreme Court, more London bombings last week. But beneath the hubbub, we can see the playing out of another, less reported story: the collapse of the attempts by liberal Democrats and their sympathizers in the mainstream media — The New York Times, etc., etc. — to delegitimize yet another Republican administration.

This project has been ongoing for more than 30 years…

Iraq: Survey of press coverage

The new centrist blog Donkelphant has an excellent survey of press performance on Iraq coverage - surveying the AP photo wire as a reference. It is not a pretty "picture":

So how are we doing in Iraq? What are those tens of thousands of our sons and daughters, brothers and wives, doing in that distant land? We went there to help build freedom and make the world safer for all. What’s the progress report?

I checked the Associated Press photo wire today to get an overview of the war as it is seen through the eyes of the Associated Press. I looked back through all the pictures for the previous week. Here’s what I saw keywording “soldier” and “Iraq” on the AP:

Are desertions and deaths newsworthy? Yes, they are. (Moby I’m not so sure about.) But the stories I’m missing from Iraq are about the reconstruction, and the daily business of U.S. troops in-country. When we invaded Iraq we said we’d do three things: overthrow Saddam, install a responsible government, and get the country back on its feet again after years of neglect.

That third “leg” of the mission has gone AWOL in the news coverage. Really, it never showed up in most news outlets. This is not a plea for “good news.” It can be bad news — such as the number of hours the power still isn’t on in some places — but, please, tell me about it. It’s just as important as Abu Ghraib.

To ignore it is bias by neglect.

When I want to know what U.S. men and women are doing in Iraq on a daily basis, I don’t turn to the AP or Fox or CNN. Thanks to the Internet, I can go right to the sources (many good Milblogger links at those sites).

Iraq: Methods for identifying and targetting the terrorist leadership (and foot soldiers)

I’ve been struggling with the following puzzle since the seriousness of the security problem emerged - why are we reacting instead of preempting? Why do we have to wait for the bad guys to bomb or shoot at us? Instead, why don’t we track down and vett every Iraqi who is a probable bad guy? A related puzzle - why isn’t every Iraqi citizen carrying a reliable, machine-readable ID Card?

The Iraqis have documentation on most of the likely players - but I’ve never seen any indication these resources are being exploited. If I were King I would definitely want to evaluate methods that (a) focus arrests and surveilance on the most likely terrorists, and (b) simplify the rapid and reliable identification of any persons encountered in any situation by security (checkpoints, sweeps, etc.).

Given the Saddam regime’s compulsive record keeping, isn’t there a directory/database of all senior Baathist, Fedayeen, military personnel, etc? If those records do exist, I don’t understand why some variation of the following is not worth consideration:

1) drive a national vetting program from the master directory, enlisting the entire population to help locate the high-risk men (e.g., via regular TV and print ads looking for these men with photos and descriptions)?

2) retain for interrogation the suspicious characters?

3) for those who cannot pass the vetting with full confidence, require them to wear a personal tracker (as used for out-prisoner cases)? Cut the tracker off only once they can be fully vetted.

4) why not a national ID card scheme? I.e., who are these guys we just stopped at a checkpoint? Are they vetted good guys?

5) exploit what I call the "circle of trust". Consider the old Iraqi army and security apparatus as an example. I’m confident that by now we have identified a number of the ex-officer class that are true Iraqi patriots, reliable and trusted men. Have we invested appropriately serious effort to work with these men to develop the "circle of trust" cadre? From which we could draw candidates for leadership in all areas (security forces, anti-corruption forces, …).

I have similar questions with regard to the database of those listed in the massive pre-war prisoner release. I would also examine the wisdom of expanding the screen to include any released criminals in the risky age group. And what about the lists of pre-war welfare cases?

Michael Yon on non-Americans fighting in Iraq

It’s been true since the U.S. was founded that some of the best Americans were not born in America. And we can use all the good people we can get. That’s something to remember.

Another thoughtful post from the invaluable Michael Yon. One excerpt is about "The Q ":

There’s another soldier here from Mexico, Victor Quinonez. Everyone calls him Q. At 23, Q fights like crazy; he’s earned his great combat reputation. I joke with Q that he’ll either be a top military leader, or in trouble with the law if he doesn’t listen to his leaders. And Q always tells me, "Mike, when the shit goes down and the bullets are flying, you stick with me and I’ll get you out. Never fear when the Q is here! You’ve seen me in action. You know I’ll get you out. I’m a Mexican, not a Mexican’t!"

First time I met Q, I thought he was full of something, and he was, but it wasn’t what I was thinking. One time, during a brief shootout, I kind of broke through a gate for cover in a house, and Q said, "Mike, what you hidin’ from!" I answered, "Bullets, dumbass! Get in here!" "You come out here!" Q said, "We’re gonna get these guys!" Now he’s like my young Mexican-American brother and I get worried he’ll get shot or blown up.

Muslim arabs support democracy

Prof. R.J. Rummel cited this University of Michigan The World Values Survey. Some of the results are definitely not as "everbody knows" at the NYT. Just look at this graphic on Support for Democracy vs cultural zone:

Rummel is a constant source of insights and references on democracy initiatives worldwide. E.g., from his Democratic Peace website see "Talk By Radwan Masmoudi: "Islam & Democracy: Between The Past, The Present & The Future"

A Feasible Fix for Social Security

The economics of Social Security are complex enough that many voters do not really grasp:

  • why the existing scheme is economically untenable, or
  • how extreme is the existing benefits redistribution from high to low earners, or
  • what Bush is proposing to fix the scheme

The press has offered little clarity on any of these issues, but has contributed polling which clearly demonstrates that the public understands that something is seriously wrong:

In June, 51 percent of respondents to a New York Times/CBS poll said that they don’t think Social Security will be able to pay their future benefits—and 70 percent of Americans under 45 were doubtful that Social Security will be there when they retire.

Some good news: Nicole Gelinas has written an easily understandable review of both the problems and the workings of the proposed solution in the latest City Journal. If you will invest just a few minutes to study her article you should be well on your way to an understanding of the fundamentals. Gelinas further demonstrates that the Bush proposal for "progressive indexing" should make the reform politically feasible.

That’s my take at least - I don’t see how any politician could refuse good faith negotiations to draft a passable reform around the Bush proposal. True, the "progressive indexing" offer makes the "rich to poor" redistribution even more extreme. But so long as at least one-third of the contributions are eligible for personal accounts the new scheme will be sustainable, while the resulting retirement benefits will be both meaningful and likely to generate wealth that can be passed on to survivors.

Why not email or write your public servants ? Tell them you expect them to support a solution. Assert your wishes on the key drafting points - emphasizing one-third for private accounts. Mega-Vote is a painless way to contact your public servants (and to keep track of how they are performing).

Reformers have powerful arguments to make to middle-income Americans to build on this support. Americans are already worried about the fate of their own pensions and skeptical that they will ever see any return from their payroll taxes. Reformers should address those fears, pointing out that under today’s Social Security system, workers are investing in nothing more than futures contracts on politicians—that is, in the ability and willingness of future politicians to keep today’s promises. It wouldn’t be long before workers began to realize that the safest pension is the one each holds in his own personal account, not the one promised by a corporation or by the government.

Nervous in Baghdad - Do Americans have the will to stay the course? Part 2

"The mood of how this war is going in Baghdad and Arab capitals is better than in Washington and London," Abizaid said.

This Part 2 focuses upon the critical reality that there are two adversaries that must be overcome, and includes below an Open Letter To the Directors of the NYT, BBC, NPR and CBS . The adversaries are:

  1. The terrorists: the jihadis worldwide, their partners in Iraq - the ex-Baathists and the criminal gangs (100,000 of which Saddam released just before OIF).
  2. The legacy media exemplified by the NYT, Guardian, BBC, CBS, NPR etc.

Adversary 1 is obvious. Adversary 2 is the eager and active partner that makes a victory by the armed Adversary 1 possible. Adversary 1 murders - primarily innocent civilians, takes and beheads hostages, with these clear objectives:

  • To intimidate the civilians in their sphere to allow them a base. A base to build bombs, to cache munitions. A base from which they can sneak out to murder civilians and counter-terror soldiers both in Afghanistan and in Iraq. This is a classic, proven successful Mafia strategy.
  • To hinder the development of democratic institutions and infrastructure reconstruction, with the goal of preventing stability and security.
  • By delaying stability and security they hope to exhaust the patience of the Coalition publics to the point that the voters force a withdrawal.

The partner, Adversary 2, is essential for Adversary 1 to succeed:

  • Adversary 1 knows they have zero possibility of military or political success. They have never achieved a military victory above the platoon level in either Afghanistan or Iraq.
  • The terror leadership knows they are fighting an information war, with the target of that war being the Western publics.
  • Every murder, every atrocity has a clear objective. That is to provide their partner, Adversary 2, with the video and stories that they can use to fill their pages or "dead air" (industry jargon for the 24hrs daily you have to fill with something).
  • Every print/TV without-context story of "another car bomb, another beheading" run by the NYT or BBC directly supports the terrorists and advances their agenda. Each such story gives hope to the terrorists and eats away at the patience and resolve of the Coalition publics.
  • By supporting the terrorists through their coverage, these legacy media are directly responsible for more deaths of civilians and soldiers.
  • Without the support of their media partner, the terror leaders will look for a new strategy. Without that media magnification, the impact of a car-bombing is net negative for the terrorists - it turns the local public against them while it has no military significance.
  • The terror leaders are not stupid men. How they would revise their strategy after losing their media partner I do not know. How could it be worse?

Among the Coalition publics are some citizens who ignore the legacy media, and instead seek out the true story of the war through networks of deployed military or Iraq friends, Iraqi or military bloggers, or writers like Michael Yon who risk their lives every day reporting outside of the Green Zone. These informed citizens still find it difficult to appraise progress - even the military and Iraqi leadership have difficulty measuring progress. But by accessing objective information they have reason for cautious optimism: so long as the will to fight is sustained until stability and security are achieved, then the almost 50 million people of Iraq and Afghanistan will have the opportunity to govern themselves and to join the global economy. Their countries are never likely to be governed like Switzerland. They are likely to incorporate elements of Islam in the way they govern. But they will have the chance of freedom, for perhaps their grandchildren to attend a college, and for their future female offspring to succeed in business or politics.

Open Letter To the Directors of the NYT, BBC, NPR and CBS: you will probably never read this, but if you do, then know this - every day you are killing people, civilians as well as brave soldiers. You can end this killing by ending your sensationalist reporting on terrorist atrocities. Instead you will:

  1. Not endeavor to "spin" your reportage to be favorable to the party in power, nor to the success of the mission. You will report the facts, ensuring that the facts are in context.
  2. Explain the facts you report by researching the hard way, in the field. Why are the terrorists bombing and beheading? How are the civilians reacting to these attacks. What is morale of the Coalition soldiers? How do those soldiers view their mission, their leadership, their resources - are they sufficient?
  3. Fund regular polling of the Iraqi and Afghani publics.
  4. In your reportage you will treat the briefings by the respective governments and the Coalition military as true - unless you uncover counterfactual information.
  5. Report on the terror atrocities only as part of the overall report on progress, challenges and Coalition casualties.

One more new policy for you media Directors. Help the anti-terror Coalition communicate with the public. You are professional communicators. It should be obvious to you that the Bush administration in particular is doing a very poor job of communications, of explaining to the public the Coalition strategy, the actual progress and setbacks in the war. Meet with the principals:

  • "We see this communications weakness, so how can we help you to present all the information to your public?".
  • "How about arranging an ongoing series of informal interviews with the leadership. And we’ll publish the complete interview transcripts on our website - we will no longer publish just out-of-context fragments that make you look bad".
  • "We need to do new polls, of both Coalition and Iraqi publics. Here are our draft questionnaires - what do you think, are there key questions or context we neglected to include?"

And dear Directors, every time you meet President Bush, remind him that the public wants to help too. They are willing to make sacrifices in this multi-generational war. Lead them. Show them where they can help - don’t just tell them to "keep on flying and spending". You have told your citizens over and over again that this will be a generational war. Now tell them how they too can become citizen-soldiers.

Lastly dear Directors, help put an end to the fantasy ideology of Al Qaeda. Now that you have many empty pages and many free air hours (that used to be filled with bombs and bodies), launch an in-depth series to document the true history of Islam and its conflicts with non-muslims. Initiate a global communications program with your foreign-media peers - objective: educate the muslim peoples about their true history, about the benefits of joining the global economic community, about the benefits of assimilation into their host countries.

Now, back to Austin Bay - who has many strong points to make on these issues:

Progress in this war has been hard to follow for a reason. The Bush administration hates the Washington press corps, and vice versa. If hate is a verb-too-far then substitute "fundamentally distrusts." The Washington press corps reflects the ethos of the national press, and that ethos is left-liberal Democrat. No, this "press" isn’t a monolith; yes, competition breeds a kind of diversity, but since Tet 1968 and Richard Nixon’s election Republicans haven’t gotten a fair shake from the New York-Washington-L.A. media axis (even though Tet occurred during a Democratic administration). Niggle over individuals, pull this stray story from that odd report, but the weight of evidence is heavy.

For the strategic good of the United States, and global liberty in general, however, this poisoned White House-press relationship may prove to be a huge problem. Al Qaeda’s jihadists plotted a multigenerational war. In the early 1990s our enemies began proselytizing London and New York mosques and in doing so began planting cadres throughout the world. Even if Washington leads a successful global counterterror war, many of these cadres will unfortunately turn gray before it’s over. That means a multiadministration war, which means bridging what my friend Sam Palmer (a genuine liberal warrior, God bless him) identified as the whipsaw of the U.S. political cycle.

The Bush administration has not done that–at least not in any focused and sustained fashion. My mother predicted this. December 2001: Mom phoned and said she remembered being a teenager in late 1942 and tossing a tin can on a wagon that rolled past the train station in her hometown of Plainview, Texas–a World War II scrap metal drive. She knew that the can she tossed didn’t add much to the war effort, but she felt that in some small, token, but very real way, she was contributing to the battle.

"The Bush administration is going to make a terrible mistake if it does not let the American people get involved in this war. Austin, we need a war bond drive. This matters, because this is what it will take."…

Please do read, and re-read all of Austin Bay.

UPDATE: On the topic of effective, successful communications Grim at The Fourth Rail analyzes Donald Rumsfeld’s WSJ 18 July op-ed "War of the Words".






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