Monthly Archive for July, 2005

Page 2 of 6

Nervous in Baghdad – Do Americans have the will to stay the course? Part 1

Published on 7/18/2005 in Counter Terrorism , Foreign Policy and Media . Closed Tags: , .

"The mood of how this war is going in Baghdad and Arab capitals is better
than in Washington and London," Abizaid said.

Via Roger
Simon, this Austin
Bay essay is a for-sure must-read. The essay is so important that I will
cover it in two parts. Part 1 focuses on objective appraisals of both progress
and challenges in the terror war. This is based on Austin Bay’s own analysis
and his interviews with Gen. John Abizaid and other key commanders in Afghanistan
and Iraq.

Part
2 focuses upon the critical reality that there are two adversaries that
must be overcome:

  1. The terrorists: the jihadis worldwide, their partners in Iraq – the ex-Baathists
    and the criminal gangs (100,000 of which Saddam released just before OIF).
  2. The legacy media exemplified by the NYT, Guardian, BBC, CBS, NPR etc.,
    see Open Letter To the Directors of the NYT, BBC, NPR
    and CBS     in Part 2.

Continuing with Austin Bay in this Part 1:

"The mood of how this war is going in Baghdad and Arab capitals is better
than in Washington and London," Abizaid said. Déjà vu
all over again, though with dust this time, and no roll: It’s the conversation
with the naval officer.

Why? I asked. Why is that? … "Here’s how
I answer that. The Arabs see the Iraqis taking control of their own lives.
And I see that. I see that every day. The fact is you have Iraqi leaders
and soldiers who go out and face it [the insurgency] every day. The Iraqis
have been fighting and dying at a rate three to four times greater than
ours, so I wouldn’t sell them short."

But what do you say to someone who says nothing has changed?

"The center of friction is now somewhere west of Baghdad. Last year I
would have said it was Baghdad. It’s moved from Baghdad, west. Into Al Anbar" province,
toward the Syrian border. "We’re squeezing them more and more. It’s clear
from the intel that Zarqawi is under pressure. Al Qaeda is under pressure everywhere.
The main problem [in Iraq] is the Sunni Arab community coming into the political
process, and that takes patient military and political skills."

Patient, he said. We have no patience, I thought. Washington,
D.C., and cable news have no patience. Our own ridiculous, catered-to generation,
General, has little patience for anything except capital gains…

"Al Anbar is two to three years behind the rest of Iraq in terms of development," General
Abizaid went on. "The final battle of the Iraqi insurgency will be fought
here. Maybe by Iraqi forces alone." Then he added: "In conservative
Sunni neighborhoods you will find restaurants named Al Falluja. Falluja has
become a symbol for fighting Western Crusaders."

Even when Falluja is policed by Iraqis?

In this part of the world, Abizaid nodded, "they’d just as soon
have [their] Sunni extremists go to Al Anbar and get killed. [The deal is]
let your problem be somebody else’s."

What’s the Iraqi Army going to be like, in two or three years?

"Do not think you will make the Iraqi Army into a U.S. Marine Corps or
U.S. Army or French Army or British Army," Abizaid replied. "They
will be an Iraqi Army, capable of defending their country. That’s what they’re
training for, that’s what they’re going to be."

Think globally – act locally

Published on 7/18/2005 in Foreign Policy . Closed

Be sure to read this important essay by Wretchard.

Although the fight against terrorism has been called the Global War on Terror, in practice it is being fought locally, often over specific issues, in a variety of countries…

…But not only has radical Islamism stirred up local mischiefs, it has also functioned as a bellows to fan the flames across other smoldering divides: the conservatives versus the Left; Europe versus America; the Third World versus the First World. It is almost as if the historical narrative, after seeming to settle into the smooth patch of the 1990s, had been reanimated across its entire spectrum by the Islamic disturbance, which shook things loose from their momentary stoppage and got things flowing again. Although the War on Terror is ostensibly a fight against the nihilism of radical Islam, it is probably much more: just how much more history will presently tell us. Radical Islam may find they are in the grip of larger forces whose power they have unleashed, which in their arrogance they sought to control only to find that events have acquired a dynamic of their own.

One factor in particular which Osama Bin Laden and his ideologues may have overlooked is the power of extremism to organize disparate forces against extremism itself. If Al Qaeda has failed to gather all Islam beneath its flag it has increasingly succeeded in getting an absurdly disparate coalition of nations and ethnic groups to regard Islam as Public Enemy Number One. If all politics and extremism is local it follows that all opposition to it will be local too. Thai hit men, British football hooligans and Shi’ite militias may never have heard of the Global War on Terror, but they all know the word opportunity.

There are useful comments to this post as well.

TigerTawk Liveblogging CNN: "Progress Report: War in Iraq"

Published on 7/17/2005 in Foreign Policy . Closed Tags: .

TigerHawk
needs a BIG tip jar for his efforts on the 17 July CNN special report
on Iraq. Since he doesn’t have a tip jar get over there to read
his report and leave a thankyou in the comments.

UPDATE: Strata-Sphere has also live-blogged the show.

All I know of the CNN report is from
TigerHawk and Strata-Sphere (ADAGIO is a TV-free zone). Overall it sounds like
there was more balance than I would have expected. There were many mistakes
of fact, and the usual TV reliance upon interviewing the apparently random
man-on-the-street. Can the CNN people read? Or maybe they don’t have internet
access?

To select just one awful inversion of truth:

According to the CNN Arab producer, "not a single person said the situation
was good, or getting better."

A good example of why I believe passing a certification in basic statistics
should be required to obtain a License to Journalize. Yes, I know reading the
results of scientific polls doesn’t make very good Video. Just one recent counter-example
from May:

Recent
polling data shows that fully two-thirds of Iraqis believe their country
is headed in the right direction, Saboon said. While a poll in January
showed only 11 percent of Sunni Muslims in Iraq shared that view, that
percentage has since grown to 40, he said. . . .

Asharq Alawsat: Expel extremism today!

Published on 7/17/2005 in Counter Terrorism and Foreign Policy . Closed Tags: .

Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed (the general manager of Al -Arabiya television) hammers lax British policy on jihadists. This was published in the Arabic daily Asharq Alawsat.

For over ten years now, myself and other Arab writers have warned against
the dangers of recklessly handling the issue of extremism that is now spreading
like the plague within British community.

It was never understood why British
authorities gave refuge to suspicious characters previously involved in terrorist
activities. Why would Britain grant asylum to Arabs who have been convicted
of political crimes, religious extremism or even sentenced to death? Not only
are they admitted to the country, they are also provided with accommodation,
a monthly salary, and free legal advice for those who want to prosecute the
British government.

The answer I believe is what I call "blind generosity",
despite its legal or political pretenses. This bizarre logic stuns those
such as students in search of establishing their careers abroad, who are
rejected citizenship. These people do not have criminal records like the
others.

Extremism,
like many other diseases, is an infectious one. A small dose of carriers
can spread the infection like wild fire, establishing a community full of destructive
thoughts and practices such as the horrific event that took place in London
recently….

Taheri: Understand suicide terror as a new weapons technology

Published on 7/17/2005 in Counter Terrorism and Foreign Policy . Closed Tags: .

Iranian journalist Amir Taheri wrote this very instructive piece
for the pan-Arab daily Asharq Alawsat (09 July 2005).

Taheri explores the
analogy of suicide terror as new weapon – following the
natural logic we would apply to combatting a dangerous new weapon:

  • Who designed it?
  • Who financed it?
  • Where is it manufactured?
  • Who are the leaders who deploy this weapon?

    • These human weapons are designed and shaped by a constant flow of anti-Western
    propaganda from Arab satellite television, the so-called Islamic associations,
    and countless madrassas (Islamic schools) and mosques throughout the world,
    including London itself. The root cause of the tragedy is a discourse that
    divided mankind into the believers and "the infidels", inciting hatred
    among followers of different faiths. This discourse is based upon a litany
    of woes about the "Cross-worshippers" and the "plotting Jews" who
    supposedly want to destroy Islam. You will hear how the West is mired in corruption,
    its womenfolk exposing their midriffs in public, and its governments sanctioning
    gay and lesbian marriages. You will also hear how "the Crusaders" have
    invaded Muslim lands and are trying to impose their democratic system on
    Afghanistan and Iraq…

    The would-be suicide-killer is also comforted by the sense of guilt
    manifested by many in the West. He has seen do-gooders from the United States
    in the streets of Arab Jerusalem apologizing to astounded Muslim passers-by
    for "the
    Crusades" which happened long before the US came into being. He may also
    note that he is treated with something bordering on deference by much of the
    Western media, which have banned the use of the word "terrorist" altogether,
    using, instead, such terms as "militants" or " resistance fighters."…

    If
    the suicide-terrorists were weapons made of metals the victims would certainly
    react by trying to bomb places where they were manufactured, but because these
    weapons are made of human flesh, the assumption is that they cannot be traced
    back to any specific locality. It is as if we were dealing with ethereal beings
    existing beyond the limits of reality.
    Last year a petition signed by some 4000 Muslim intellectuals called on the
    international community to take action against the self-styled "sheikhs" who
    incite Muslims to murder and terror. The petition was addressed to Kofi
    Annan, the United Nations” Secretary General, in the hope that it would
    be placed on the agenda of the General Assembly for a proper debate. It took
    Mr. Annan seven months to acknowledge the receipt of the petition, and even
    then only through a spokesman.

    Taheri is almost always worth a careful read – this is a good example.

    What Options Do We Have?

    Published on 7/17/2005 in Counter Terrorism and Foreign Policy . Closed Tags: .

    John
    Burgess

    If you’re serious about understanding how difficult it is for Arabs
    to suddenly start applauding US policy, or to suddenly start condemning
    terrorist activities, you need to read this article.

    linked to this Arab
    News piece     by
    Dr. Khaled Batarfi:

    As a child, I was taught to accept what is taught and given without protest.
    You eat what is on the table, dress like everyone else, go with the family
    where the elders choose to, study in the school you are put in. In class
    and mosque you don’t ask questions, except for clarification.

    Teachers and preachers tell you exactly how it is, and you got to believe.
    The books are similar. They echo what you learn from media, education and
    religious institutions — the same message, different messengers. To succeed you
    learn to follow instructions, memorize texts, and stay “in line”.

    At home and in social gatherings, kids listen and learn but are not allowed
    to speak up or argue. The wise ones are the silent, because “if talk
    is silver, silence is golden.”

    Fathers, tribal sheikhs, teachers, preachers, and leaders don’t have
    to explain their instructions if they choose not to. “The sheikhs know
    better,” is another golden rule.

    …

    What we need in the Arab world is more choices, freedoms, and options. After
    decades of progress in education, the Arab nation is mature enough to decide
    for itself. Women and minorities can and should be allowed the basic human
    right of choosing what suit them, as long as it doesn’t contradict
    the standard rules of Islam as agreed by the Islamic Fiqh Council.

    Without the freedom to choose we can never have the motives, space and environment
    for creativity.

    Without creativity we will never be strong, independent and leading. In
    a deadly competitive world based on science and technology that’s a
    death sentence.

    Madrid terrorist’s computer confirms goal of unseating Aznar

    Published on 7/17/2005 in Counter Terrorism and Foreign Policy . Closed

    The invaluable Barcepundit translates
    the Spanish press today. Excerpts:

    The document was recently found by police, according to the Cope radio network
    who has seen it. It says: "those who were suprised for our quick claim
    of responsibility in the battle of Madrid, let them know that there were
    other circumstances. In the case of Madrid, the time factor was very important in
    order to put an end to the government of Aznar the ignoble.

    The night of March 11, the Abu Hafs al Masri brigades sent the London daily
    ‘al Hayat’ a statement claiming responsibility for what they called the "operation
    trains of death". The same group claimed responsibility last July 9
    of the terror attacks in London.

    "Let all know that we’re a part of the so-called world order. We change
    states, we destroy others with Allah’s help and even decide the future of the
    world’s economy. We won’t accept being mere passive agents in this world"…

    (HT: Roger
    Simon    )

    Why That’s Ridiculous

    Published on 7/16/2005 in Counter Terrorism and Foreign Policy . Closed Tags: .

    An
    elegant piece     by Charles Krauthammer in Time. If you know Dr.
    Krauthammer’s work you’ll want to read this. If you don’t know Krauthammer’s
    work I very much hope that you’ll read this:

    For the next decade, whenever there is a terrorist attack anywhere in the
    world, there will be those blaming it on America: if only America had not been
    distracted from the war on terrorism by the war in Iraq, if only America had
    not stirred Muslim resentment and increased al-Qaeda recruitment by invading
    Iraq.

    Nonsense. The "distraction" argument is the most obvious nonsense.
    What exactly is the U.S. not doing in the war on terrorism that it would be
    doing if it weren’t in Iraq? We are supporting a fiercely antiterrorist democratic
    government in Afghanistan, hunting al-Qaeda in the impossible terrain on the
    Pakistani frontier, coordinating with just about every secret service in the
    world to disrupt terrorist communications, movement and funding. What is it
    about Iraq that "distracts"?

    As for the recruitment claim, when was the seminal period of al-Qaeda recruitment–indeed,
    the period during which it created its entire worldwide infrastructure? The
    1990s. No invasion of Iraq. No invasion of Afghanistan. The Clinton years saw
    the most open, accommodating, apologetic U.S. foreign policy since World War
    II. In fact, the 1990s was the decade of Muslim rescue: the U.S. intervened
    militarily, and decisively, to save three Muslim peoples–the Bosnians, the
    Kosovars and the Kuwaitis–from conquest and catastrophe. Yet it was precisely
    during that era of good feeling that al-Qaeda not only recruited for but also
    conceived, planned and set in motion the worst massacre of Americans in history.
    So much for the connection between American perfidy and anti-American terrorism.

    …

    The first thing to be said is that no one knows. Unlike the Bolsheviks, al-Qaeda
    does not hand out numbered party-registration cards. But let’s assume, for
    the sake of argument, that there are Muslims energized by Iraq–who were not
    energized by Western colonialism, American imperialism, Hollywood decadence,
    the Roosevelt-Saud alliance, the Afghan war, Zionism, feminism or other alleged
    outrages against Islam. They were living contentedly, tending their shoe shop
    in Riyadh, and all of a sudden they discovered the joys of jihad and the lure
    of heavenly posthumous sex awaiting them at the other end of a suicide bombing.

    The fact is that the war on terrorism is a very long war. It is not decided
    by a battle here or there. It would not have been won by stopping in Afghanistan
    and spending the rest of our lives going cave to cave looking for bin Laden
    and his henchmen. Kill him and shut the cave, yet jihadism would continue.

    …

    It is those allies who are critical in ultimately winning the war on terrorism.
    The terrorists may have recruited their new Atta, now splattered on the walls
    of the Baghdad mosque he has suicide-bombed. We have recruited tens of millions
    of Afghan and Iraqi Muslims–with Lebanese and others to follow–opposing that
    Atta as they attempt to build decent, moderate, tolerant societies.

    I’ll take our recruits.

    Hurl’s Blog: Obersvations from a pilot in Iraq

    Published on 7/16/2005 in Foreign Policy . Closed Tags: .

    I’m working my way through the new-to-me links that Karl Bade posted. This blog by an aviator in Iraq is definitely one to follow. Excerpt from latest post:

    In the past week I have flown a dozen missions or so of various types. Casevac, raids, Cordon and knock, Convoy escort, etc. As mentioned before, the Iraqi army is really getting involved in their own security as well as hunting down
    terrorists in their own operations. Clearly terrorists are murdering, disrupting,
    destroying, maiming, and…… terrorizing…. people as much as possible in
    a desperate attempt to topple the Iraqi government, throw the country into
    civil war/anarchy, and ultimately establish an authoritative Islamic regime.

    Unfortunately, terror seems to be paying off with some. It certainly paid
    off in Spain. It’s paid off with Israel since Oslo 12 years ago. It remains
    to be seen if it will pay off in Britain or ultimately the US. It certainly
    doesn’t take much to scare/subject liberals – they dropped their pants years
    ago….

    …

    Each day, life here goes on. Yes there are the almost daily suicide/homicide
    sacrifices made to Allah – mostly in and around Baghdad. And the daily IED
    attacks along certain parts of certain roads. But the VAST majority of Iraq
    is like any other place on earth (or Venus) – people going about their daily
    business. Cars fill the roads, markets are jammed, people buying, selling,
    working, playing….

    I hope to see a free, secure Iraq someday soon. I am working hard for that.
    I am working hard to stop terrorists from stealing that hope and vision from
    the majority of Iraqis. I hope politicians quit striving to portray this effort
    as a failure in order to gain political ground. I hope the MSM quits LYING
    and starts reporting the other side of Iraq – the 98% that is positive….
    I’m not holding my breath.

    Civilians working in Iraq report back

    Published on 7/16/2005 in Foreign Policy and Media . Closed Tags: .

    This is a followup to my last post on Mark Yost’s media critique. First is the
    following comment from Jarvis reader MPF:

    I (a civilian) live in the IZ and travel around the country two weeks a
    month, destination depending on necessity. The milblogs generally have it
    right – there is progress, grindingly and agonizingly slow in some places,
    blindingly fast in others. Four provinces are "hot" in the sense that trouble is not
    localized to a particular geographic pinpoint (it’s 120 in Baghdad today, so "hot" is
    all relative I suppose): Baghdad (of course), Anbar, Salahadin, and Karbala,
    and three large cities in the northern provinces (Mosul, Irbil and Kirkuk) have
    their share of unrest due to the the arabization program of the Ba’athist regime
    during the 70’s and 80’s, though problems are restricted to the cities noted
    — the countryside surrounding those places is pretty calm. The other provinces,
    aside from the cities I noted, are pretty calm and are in fact a beehive of activity
    in terms of reconstruction. Of course they have the same problems as any other
    middle eastern country (corruption, little to no infrastructure etc.) but depending
    on your benchmark they’re not "in flames", burning the flag (whatever
    flag you choose) and they’re biggest complaint is that the transitional government
    is moving too slowly towards a second round of voting. Indeed, most of the
    Sunnis recognize they screwed up by not participating in the election – there
    will be a large turnout on the next go-round.

    The vast majority are also – and by that I mean Sunni, Shia, Turkomen, Arab,
    Persian, Kurd, Yezdi etc. – fed up with the insurgency. That doesn’t mean the
    sunni (or even many southern shia) love the US. They’re just tired of the child-killings.
    The number of Iraqis providing info to the ever-growing IP and ING forces is
    increasing exponentially – an increase that started when the insurge and the
    muj began going after Iraqis. As I said, it’s not that they love us (many don’t,
    but many do) but rather they’re just tired of the b.s. I don’t blame them.
    I admire the heck out the Iraqis – they’re an incredibly resilient people.

    The journos aren’t the bad guys – the bad guys are the quasi-irredentist saddamites
    and their nihilist AQ allies who keep killing other Iraqis (an alliance that
    is becoming increasingly tattered – when the sunni tribes turn on the foreigners
    – and they will – it’s going to be even more brutal than what you currently
    see – they don’t abide by laws of war).

    I know a few journos who daily risk their necks to do their jobs as best they
    can. Then again, so does every Iraqi who’s trying to live their lives, so they
    don’t deserve significant pats on the back either – aside from the soldiers,
    who just amaze the hell out of me, the bravest people I’ve met are the Iraqis
    who keep showing up for work at the police stations or school ministries or
    power plants – it’s heroic to the point of tear-inducing.

    However, the journos mentioned by that dinkus from CJR stay in or near the
    IZ and convoy out into the red zone occasionally to get water and never see
    anything else. hey war totally idiotic body armor that just screams "kidnap
    me and cut my head off." No opsec for them – that’s too much effort.
    and so they suffer.

    Like almost every expat I’ve ever met – from London to Jakarta – they loooove
    to glamorize their self-created predicaments and bitch bitch bitch. Totally
    annoying. Of course their views are skewed. It’s illogical to think otherwise.
    Since when are journos unlike everyone else? your political baggage comes with
    you wherever in the world you go – sometimes it changes, but you still have
    it. Why they insist on denying it is beyond me. The screeching in response
    to Yost is proof positive that t criticism hits a raw nerve – if it’s so unfounded
    then why is the nerve so raw? Besides, talk to them one on one long enough
    and even they admit it, but in a way that makes it sound noble (like Cronkite’s
    admission earlier).

    Most of the people I know here who watch the media think Burns at NYT is the
    only one who gets both the facts and the tone about right (it’s still a war
    zone in some spots, calm in most, Shia and Kurds are psyched not to be put
    into mass graves anymore, Sunnis are pissed, and the ex-regime was pond scum
    beyond description), though Langweisch at the Atlantic Monthly is also pretty
    good in that regard.

    That’s all I’ve got. I really do enjoy Mr. Jarvis’ writings – don’t get to
    see them much anymore, but I hope you keep it up.

    Second, reader Brian H. submitted a link to Rick Sackett’s report Iraq:
    The Media is Misleading the World     Rick is an NGO director who worked
    in Iraq for a year on reconstruction projects. Rick and his wife were
    shocked at the disconnect between media reporting and their on the ground
    observations. So when they returned to the US they would stand up and speak
    whenever they were in a restaurant:

    …So what is the truth? Am I telling you the truth when I say the vast
    majority of Iraqi people are thankful to the United States? Recently I met
    with a reporter at Applebee’s restaurant. As we started the interview I decided rather
    than tell her what I was doing, that I would just show her, and so I stood
    up as I had done many other times in the last month and asked for the diner’s
    attention. When the people heard that I had been in Iraq the restaurant grew
    quiet, but forty-five seconds later broke into applause at the brief message
    I had brought them. As you can imagine the ensuing interview was quite animated
    and for the next hour diners dropped by with words of appreciation for what
    I had said. In the course of our conversation something happened that should
    give us all hope and a little more insight into what is the truth about the
    situation in Iraq. I told the reporter, “The most interesting thing that
    I have found is that everywhere I go and speak, people come up and tell me
    that their cousin in Iraq (or whoever they might know in Iraq) is telling them
    the very same thing that I am saying.” Two minutes later a woman came
    over to our table and said, “You know my cousin in Iraq…” The
    interview appeared on the front page of the paper the next day. Take heart
    America. The truth will set you free.

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