In the context of hopeful signs from Iraq, Lebanon and Israel-Palestine it may be useful to have a look at the best source on the vital signs of the region.
The Arab Human Development Report reports are sponsored by the UN Development Program (UNDP), and researched by all Arab authors. The UN charges $10 to download the PDF. I’ve found free sources for the two published reports here (the 2004 report is in progress at the date of this posting):
The Economist has kindly left their July 4, 2002 article in the free section of their site. This is a good overview of the results.
I’m an optimist. Unless the Arab Spring of 2005 collapses, I think the 2010 report will start showing some upticks in the indicators. If by then western companies are risking capital in the Arab states then we can really get hopeful.
The reports analyze the three main reasons the Arab world is falling further and further behind (shortage of freedom, women’s rights, education). Yes shortage of freedom is an issue. Some things are true even if George Bush believes them.
In spite of all the oil wealth, the GDP of Spain now exceeds the total of 22 Arab states.
This should be required reading for those who think just a little more foreign aid will stop the production of terrorists. Of the seven key regions of the world, the Arab states have the lowest freedom score - and overall nearly the lowest HDI (Human Development Index)
About 40% of the Arab population is now under age 20, due to extreme population growth. There are no jobs for them today, and the demographics are getting worse every year. If they have any education it is unlikely to include any training in critical thought, but will have concentrated on memorization of the Koran.
Outside the elites, the populations have little idea what is going on in the modern world (lowest literacy rates other than sub-Saharan Africa). That is literacy in Arabic - how many would you guess can read English? An illuminating quote from the report:
The figures for translated books are also discouraging. The Arab world translates about 330 books annually, one fifth of the number that Greece translates. The cumulative total of translated books since the Caliph Maa’moun’s time (the ninth century) is about 100,000, almost the average that Spain translates in one year.
That is consistent with how the Arab world is doing in R&D by investing less than one-seventh the world average (measured by scientific papers published):
In 1981, the Republic of Korea was producing 10 per cent of the output of the Arab world; in 1995, it almost equalled its output.
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