Seeker Blog

Stephen Moore surveys the latest Congressional Budget Office report, Wall Street Journal 13 June, 2005. The growth in total tax revenues is consistent with the supply-side economics thesis. But this short article doesn’t really help us identify the independent variables. I.e., how much of the revenue increases were directly caused by the tax cuts vs. the general economic recovery?

Now we have overpowering confirming evidence from the Bush tax cuts of May 2003. The jewel of the Bush economic plan was the reduction in tax rates on dividends from 39.6% to 15% and on capital gains from 20% to 15%. These sharp cuts in the double tax on capital investment were intended to reverse the 2000-01 stock market crash, which had liquidated some $6 trillion in American household wealth, and to inspire a revival in business capital investment, which had also collapsed during the recession. The tax cuts were narrowly enacted despite the usual indignant primal screams from the greed and envy lobby about "tax cuts for the super rich."

Last week the Congressional Budget Office released its latest report on tax revenue collections. The numbers are an eye-popping vindication of the Laffer Curve and the Bush tax cut’s real economic value. Federal tax revenues have surged in the first eight months of this fiscal year by $187 billion. This represents a 15.4% rise in federal tax receipts over 2004. Individual and corporate income tax receipts have exploded like a cap let off a geyser, up 30% in the two years since the tax cut. Once again, tax rate cuts have created a virtuous chain reaction of higher economic growth, more jobs, higher corporate profits, and finally more tax receipts.

This Laffer Curve effect has also created a revenue windfall for states and cities. As the economic expansion has plowed forward, and in some regions of the country accelerated, state tax receipts have climbed 7.5% this year already. Perhaps the most remarkable story from around the nation comes from the perpetually indebted New York City, which suddenly finds itself more than $3 billion IN SURPLUS thanks to an unexpected gush in revenues. Many of President Bush’s critics foolishly predicted that states and localities would be victims of the Bush tax cut gamble.

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See also my earlier post on the Freedom to Choose Flat Tax , a concept so compelling that it’s astonishing there is so little discussion.