Thinking Outside the Iran Box

Jim Hoagland thinking outside the box – very interesting:

The United States and Israel exercise absolute conventional military domination over the Middle East but are bled by costly asymmetrical warfare. They must now pursue war by other means, through asymmetrical diplomacy and statecraft built on flexibility and open-ended tactics.

For the Bush administration, that means pursuing a strategy of “as if” to deter Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and from interfering in Iraq. Washington should act as if it will secure Russian and Chinese support for sanctions against Tehran, and as if Iran will eventually make a deal — even though neither event is likely.

Moving to asymmetrical diplomacy will involve President George W. Bush — at the right moment — expressing a willingness to talk directly with Iran about all subjects, including security in Iraq and the Persian Gulf. Memo to Mr. Bush: You don’t have to answer the letter you get, you can answer the one you wanted to get.

For Israel’s new coalition government, asymmetrical statecraft means taking active steps to avoid humanitarian and political disaster in the Palestinian territories rather than constantly raising the temperature under a boiling pot. Ehud Olmert has shown early signs of adopting that approach — up to a point.

The Israeli prime minister visits Washington this month for meetings with President Bush that should contribute to a redrawing of strategy toward the Islamic radicals now in power in Iran and in the Palestinian territories. By giving the radicals the room they need to fail on their own, Messrs. Bush and Olmert can build international acceptance for the hard choices they will be called on to make and present to the world in the near future.