Seeker Blog

…the greatest cause of economic loss will arise from the uncoordinated efforts of the public to avoid infection.

Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization gave this speech 13 June. As she said, all the studies and simulations I’ve seen indicate that the next pandemic could cost in the trillion range — effectively an “own goal” self-inflicted damage. But I don’t see anyway to avoid the “own goal” response as everything system we depend upon is going to self-abort as workers quarantine themselves.

The preparations for vaccine production and deployment are encouraging. She didn’t comment on progress towards a rapid-realization capability for a specific vaccine.

For the first time in history, the world has been watching the conditions that might start an influenza pandemic unfold in real-time.
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The most respected scientific journals have published scenarios of the havoc a pandemic could wreak under the unique conditions of the 21st century.

The World Bank has estimated that a pandemic could cost the world economy between 800 billion dollars and 2 trillion dollars, depending on the virulence of the virus.

But both estimates agree: the greatest cause of economic loss will arise from the uncoordinated efforts of the public to avoid infection.
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An influenza pandemic is a unique event. I know of no other health emergency that can spread to every corner of the globe within a few months.

Once a fully transmissible pandemic virus emerges, its international spread is considered unstoppable.

The three pandemics of the previous century encircled the globe in six to nine months, even at a time when most travel was by ship.
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We know that manufacturing capacity for influenza vaccines is overwhelmingly concentrated in Europe and North America. We also know that manufacturing capacity is finite.

Current capacity is 1.5 billion doses for a monovalent vaccine. This falls far short of what will be needed for a world of well over 6 billion people, all susceptible to infection.
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Advance procurement mechanisms for a pandemic vaccine are under development. In April, a strategic advisory group of experts confirmed the scientific feasibility of establishing an H5N1 vaccine stockpile.

The experts saw two immediate needs for such a stockpile: to intervene near the start of a pandemic in an attempt to contain it, and to allow protection of essential personnel, such as health care staff, in the initially affected countries.

WHO has initiated work to establish such a stockpile.

I am in dialogue with development partners and with executives from all the leading influenza vaccine companies. I am greatly encouraged by the firm commitments we have received from several companies.

GlaxoSmithKline is announcing their substantial commitment today to provide 50 million doses of H5N1 vaccine to a global stockpile managed by WHO, for which we are most grateful. I am also pleased to announce that Sanofi Pasteur, Omnivest and Baxter will also contribute to the stockpile. These commitments strengthen our collective security. I hope other companies will join.
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If you put a burglar in front of a locked door with a sack full of keys and give him enough time, he will get in.

Influenza viruses have a sack full of keys and a bag full of tricks.

They are constantly mutating, constantly delivering surprises. We must not let down our guard….