Seeker Blog

Michael Yon:

Iraq is looking better month by month. But at the current rate, surely we shall fail in Afghanistan…

…A great deal of flak came in for my 2006 reporting from Afghanistan. Unfortunately, that on-the-ground reporting is proving correct nearly to the letter. The following three-part report summarizing my observations and experiences in Afghanistan more than a year ago, warned of the growing threat of a narco-fueled Taliban increasingly able to challenge a national government overgrown with incompetency and choked with corruption.

I have characterized Afghanistan as little more than a hunting lodge for our special operations forces. Since the Afghan campaign has been largely a special forces war from the beginning, we have been able to transition with great secrecy from near victory, to abysmal performance, to what has now become a sustainable human-hunting resort. Our special operations forces are out there hunting Taliban and al Qaeda, outside of public view—although it appears that “the public” is hardly clamoring for news from Afghanistan—while the country devolves into the consummate narco-state.

There are many indicators that the Afghan campaign is at this date a complete failure; how much has anything changed from when The Perfect Evil was published nearly a year ago? At the time of its publication, I intended it as a warning cry that action needed to be taken, and fast, before the momentum of decline reached avalanche velocity.

As with my January 2005 warnings of looming civil war in Iraq, it appears that at least a year or longer is needed before what was initially a solvable problem metastasizes into a Stage 4 disaster. If that experience is a guide, there are 3 phases between First Warning and Hail Mary. In Iraq, it took 6 to 9 months to complete the cycle of “euphemize what can’t be ignored.” The same amount of time was needed to complete the “attack the messenger” phase. Before the “fix it before it kills us” phase can commence, a full and seemingly endless cycle of “blame everyone else” needs to be completed by all the people who could have and should have done something sooner.

The war is finally turning a positive corner here in Iraq. Although some complain that the turn around is behind schedule, if Iraq continues to progress so rapidly, I will leave here in 2008, with plans to go to Afghanistan.

Read on for Michael’s three-part report from 2006.