Seeker Blog

Thanks to Glenn for this link to “Counterinsurgency: Predictions and Prescriptions”, which begins:

On April 8-9, Gen. David Petraeus, commander of American forces in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will testify to Congress on the state of the war. Over the past year, Coalition and Iraqi forces have implemented a “clear, hold, and build” strategy, nicknamed “the surge” due to the increase of roughly 30,000 troops that made it possible.

Concurrent with counterinsurgency operations, Sunni tribes that were previously at war with the Coalition have banded together in “Awakening Councils” to fight al Qaeda in Iraq. Casualties and terrorist attacks have decreased nationwide ever since.

To give our readers a preview of Gen. Petraeus’ testimony, we consulted a range of informed sources on the situation in Iraq. We asked them what they thought he should and would say.

Counterinsurgency Professionals

Michael Meese, an Army colonel and advisor to Petraeus, said: “Most importantly, the testimony should include describing the risks entailed with a premature, precipitous withdrawal.”

“I actually expect him to say what he should say,” said Conrad Crane, the lead author of Petraeus’ counterinsurgency manual and a Stanford graduate. “He will recount the impact of the surge and his strategy since his last testimony. He will render an assessment of the current situation on the ground, including some discussion of political progress. Lastly I expect him to present an evaluation of the possible impact of future troop withdrawals on that situation, and to make his case for how he feels they should be conducted.”

Military Historians

Experts at the Hoover Institution also weighed in. Victor Davis Hanson, who has visited Iraq a number of times and whose name is familiar to the thousands of military officers assigned to read his books, and Thomas Henriksen, also a senior fellow at the Joint Special Operations University, agreed that Petraeus would credit the recent successes to the surge.

“The ultimate vision of a constitutional republic that does not translate its oil wealth into wars against its neighbors in a fragile region and support and subsidies for terrorists is finally achievable,” Hanson said.

Hanson said that Petraeus will offer “a plan of gradual brigade withdrawal in late 2008 and 2009 predicated on the continued progress in the Iraqi national police and army.” He will also advise against firm timetables, and “try to frame the parameters of a bipartisan policy, one that will allow Democrats some sort of exit from their prior defeatist rhetoric and a chance to claim part ownership of our present success.”

Hanson said that Petraeus will offer “a plan of gradual brigade withdrawal in late 2008 and 2009 predicated on the continued progress in the Iraqi national police and army.” He will also advise against firm timetables, and “try to frame the parameters of a bipartisan policy, one that will allow Democrats some sort of exit from their prior defeatist rhetoric and a chance to claim part ownership of our present success.”

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