Saudi does not publish the oil field engineering data required to formally verify their reserves. So Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. has undertaken an innovative indirect study of the Ghawar field using satellite imagery and radar data. I don’t have an informed opinion on the validity of the Bernstein study.
…Combing through dozens of high-resolution satellite images of Ghawar going back to 2001, the Bernstein team has concluded in a study sent to clients at the end of April that only part of the vast field “is suffering signs of old age.” On the whole, Bernstein says, the field “is being properly managed” and is experiencing only “mild production-decline rates at worst.”
Critics of the study, including some who have crunched their own overhead imagery, say the Bernstein study is insufficient and the debate over Ghawar’s health is far from over.
…Put into production in 1951, Ghawar remains the greatest treasure of hydrocarbons ever found. The Saudis say the field, measuring about 20 miles wide and 175 miles long, spits out as much oil every day as all the oil wells in the U.S. combined. Its output accounts for around 60% of total Saudi production.
Yet no one outside of Saudi Arabia has any sound data on production rates at Ghawar, or the kingdom’s other huge fields. The Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, has long been secretive about data on the kingdom’s oil holdings, as are most Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries members whose economies are heavily dependent on oil revenue.
“The problem is that silence leads to speculation,” says Neil McMahon, who led the Bernstein study as the firm’s senior analyst. The motivation, he says, “was to confront the whole peak-oil thing with some real data.”
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