The Wall Street Journal has just released their 2008 survey of 53 economists. And no, the economists do not see prices being controlled by a secret cabal of oil companies and speculators. The numerical forecast results can be studied in a very cool interactive Flash tool — the best example I’ve seen of the presentation of complex data. I recommend a quick review of their demo.
Economists are always being asked to make forecasts — a hazardous task — at least beyond the next quarter or two. You can study examples of forecast vs. actual using the Flash tool. E.g., for the June 2005 Federal Funds Target Rate forecasted in June 2004, the actual turned out to be 3.25% — near the top of the range of forecasts which averaged about 2.9%.
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