<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><!-- generator="wordpress/2.3.2" -->
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: Freeman Dyson reviews &#8220;A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies&#8221;</title>
	<link>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/</link>
	<description>Seeking reliable, objective sources on economics, foreign-policy and energy-policy issues.</description>
	<pubDate>Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:20:32 +0000</pubDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.2</generator>
		<item>
		<title>By: Will Howard</title>
		<link>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24816</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Howard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2008 03:10:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24816</guid>
		<description>Steve asks: "In this back-of-the-envelope estimation of the first derivative Dyson ignored the seasonal atmosphere-ocean exchanges. Why?"

A number of reasons.

The atmosphere-ocean exchanges variability are not only due to biology, but also due to thermodynamics. Basically colder water can hold more CO2. So the seasonal cycle of ocean-atmos. exchange is controlled not only by growth of marine plants but by seasonality of temperature, mixed-layer depth and other dynamic variables.

The seasonality of o-a exchange is not as simple to characterise in terms of seasonality because the Southern Ocean plays such a big role and of course its seasonality is in the opposite sense to the Northern Hemi. Some of the most important areas of o-a exchange are modulated by by processes like upwelling which do not correspond clearly to either N or S Hemi. seasonality. Examples include monsoonal upwelling zones in the Arabian Sea.

Also biomass in the ocean is labile (short-lived). That is, it's turned over much more than terrestrial biomass. Even though ocean productivity plays a big role in the global carbon cycle, marine biomass (or standing stock, or inventory) is orders of magnitude smaller than terrestrial biomass. There are no "trees" in the ocean and its ecosystems are dominated by planktonic micro-algae whose lifespans are measured in weeks or months (even the dramatic kelp "forests" off Tasmania and the US West Coast do not account for very much biomass). Proposals like iron fertilization that seek to stimulate ocean plant growth would not work by storing carbon as biomass, but by storing it as dissolved carbon dioxide (mainly bicarbonate ion) in the deep ocean. The carbon would be transferred to the deep ocean as biomass, but it would be quickly converted to dissolved CO2 by decomposition. So it's a somewhat different system.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve asks: &#8220;In this back-of-the-envelope estimation of the first derivative Dyson ignored the seasonal atmosphere-ocean exchanges. Why?&#8221;</p>
<p>A number of reasons.</p>
<p>The atmosphere-ocean exchanges variability are not only due to biology, but also due to thermodynamics. Basically colder water can hold more CO2. So the seasonal cycle of ocean-atmos. exchange is controlled not only by growth of marine plants but by seasonality of temperature, mixed-layer depth and other dynamic variables.</p>
<p>The seasonality of o-a exchange is not as simple to characterise in terms of seasonality because the Southern Ocean plays such a big role and of course its seasonality is in the opposite sense to the Northern Hemi. Some of the most important areas of o-a exchange are modulated by by processes like upwelling which do not correspond clearly to either N or S Hemi. seasonality. Examples include monsoonal upwelling zones in the Arabian Sea.</p>
<p>Also biomass in the ocean is labile (short-lived). That is, it&#8217;s turned over much more than terrestrial biomass. Even though ocean productivity plays a big role in the global carbon cycle, marine biomass (or standing stock, or inventory) is orders of magnitude smaller than terrestrial biomass. There are no &#8220;trees&#8221; in the ocean and its ecosystems are dominated by planktonic micro-algae whose lifespans are measured in weeks or months (even the dramatic kelp &#8220;forests&#8221; off Tasmania and the US West Coast do not account for very much biomass). Proposals like iron fertilization that seek to stimulate ocean plant growth would not work by storing carbon as biomass, but by storing it as dissolved carbon dioxide (mainly bicarbonate ion) in the deep ocean. The carbon would be transferred to the deep ocean as biomass, but it would be quickly converted to dissolved CO2 by decomposition. So it&#8217;s a somewhat different system.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Steve Darden</title>
		<link>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24804</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Darden</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 19:18:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24804</guid>
		<description>Will, many thanks for the great references. The UNEP Introduction to climate change link is especially good for lay folk as an overview of the exchanges.

And thanks for the clarification of Dyson's seasonal flux comments. I interpreted his description in the same way as you outlined. I think what Dyson was after was to get a handle on the rate at which carbon could theoretically be removed from the atmosphere by some future geo-engineering approach. He wrote:

&lt;em&gt;
This fact, that the exchange of carbon between atmosphere and vegetation is rapid, is of fundamental importance to the long-range future of global warming, as will become clear in what follows. Neither of the books under review mentions it.&lt;/em&gt;

In this back-of-the-envelope estimation of the first derivative Dyson ignored the seasonal atmosphere-ocean exchanges. Why?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Will, many thanks for the great references. The UNEP Introduction to climate change link is especially good for lay folk as an overview of the exchanges.</p>
<p>And thanks for the clarification of Dyson&#8217;s seasonal flux comments. I interpreted his description in the same way as you outlined. I think what Dyson was after was to get a handle on the rate at which carbon could theoretically be removed from the atmosphere by some future geo-engineering approach. He wrote:</p>
<p><em><br />
This fact, that the exchange of carbon between atmosphere and vegetation is rapid, is of fundamental importance to the long-range future of global warming, as will become clear in what follows. Neither of the books under review mentions it.</em></p>
<p>In this back-of-the-envelope estimation of the first derivative Dyson ignored the seasonal atmosphere-ocean exchanges. Why?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Will Howard</title>
		<link>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24790</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Howard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 09:37:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24790</guid>
		<description>see also:

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/13.htm

for an illustration of the reservoirs and fluxes in the carbon cycle.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>see also:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/13.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/13.htm</a></p>
<p>for an illustration of the reservoirs and fluxes in the carbon cycle.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Will Howard</title>
		<link>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24787</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Howard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 07:39:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid>http://seekerblog.com/archives/20080527/freeman-dyson-reviews-a-question-of-balance-weighing-the-options-on-global-warming-policies/#comment-24787</guid>
		<description>It's important to understand that the carbon fluxes implied by the seasonal cycle in Northern Hemisphere pCO2 are gross, not net, fluxes. That is, though they represent a large annual movement of carbon in and out of the terrestrial biosphere, it's a roughly balanced flux and does not represent net sequestration of carbon. So the anthropogenic flux (fossil fuel emissions plus land-use change), though smaller than the gross biospheric fluxes is effectively a "one-way" flux. At least on the time scales of economic planning. For scale, the "balanced" flux in and out of the biosphere is about 60-70 gigatons carbon/year. The anthropogenic flux is currently estimated at just under 10 GTC/year.

The annual cycle Dyson cites is mainly a "deciduous" signal: net ecosystem respiration (due in part to decaying leaves) versus net ecosystem photosynthesis. Only net growth of tree trunks and branches, or carbon buried in soils or peats "counts" as sequestration in this cycle.

So any biotech solution would have to be a "tree-trunk" solution.

see:

Canadell, J. G., Le Quere, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., and Marland, G., 2007, Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, p. 0702737104, doi:10.1073/pnas.0702737104.

and

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s important to understand that the carbon fluxes implied by the seasonal cycle in Northern Hemisphere pCO2 are gross, not net, fluxes. That is, though they represent a large annual movement of carbon in and out of the terrestrial biosphere, it&#8217;s a roughly balanced flux and does not represent net sequestration of carbon. So the anthropogenic flux (fossil fuel emissions plus land-use change), though smaller than the gross biospheric fluxes is effectively a &#8220;one-way&#8221; flux. At least on the time scales of economic planning. For scale, the &#8220;balanced&#8221; flux in and out of the biosphere is about 60-70 gigatons carbon/year. The anthropogenic flux is currently estimated at just under 10 GTC/year.</p>
<p>The annual cycle Dyson cites is mainly a &#8220;deciduous&#8221; signal: net ecosystem respiration (due in part to decaying leaves) versus net ecosystem photosynthesis. Only net growth of tree trunks and branches, or carbon buried in soils or peats &#8220;counts&#8221; as sequestration in this cycle.</p>
<p>So any biotech solution would have to be a &#8220;tree-trunk&#8221; solution.</p>
<p>see:</p>
<p>Canadell, J. G., Le Quere, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., and Marland, G., 2007, Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, p. 0702737104, doi:10.1073/pnas.0702737104.</p>
<p>and</p>
<p><a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
