“Scientists imagine they’ll keep working at the present pace,” he told me after his speech. “They make linear extrapolations from the past. When it took years to sequence the first 1 percent of the human genome, they worried they’d never finish, but they were right on schedule for an exponential curve. If you reach 1 percent and keep doubling your growth every year, you’ll hit 100 percent in just seven years.”
I do wish we were going to be around for the Singularity — it’s possible if Ray’s 2029 schedule proves valid. Meanwhile, it is certainly fun to consider the ramifications of exponentially accelerating change. The Kurzweil theory is becoming a bit mainstream — appearing in New York Times columnist John Tierney’s column.
More important: the May IEEE Spectrum is a special issue devoted to Singularity topics. This is a rather remarkable issue of Spectrum - the lineup of authors promises lots of brainfood - from Rodney Brooks to Vernor Vinge.
Meanwhile Nanosolar seems to be accelerating towards Kurzweil’s enticing forecasts of competitive solar power via nanotechnology. Yeh, it’s a challenge to separate the hype from the real progress. Dear readers: want to post your photos of the volume of real product coming out of Nanosolar’s US and German plants? Count boxes loading onto airfreight trucks?
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I read Fantastic Voyage, The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity is Near, and they changed my life. I even found some of his lectures on Itunes and I find myself impatiently awaiting his next book.
Recently read another incredible book that I can’t recommend highly enough, especially to all of you who also love Ray Kurzweil’s work. The book is “”My Stroke of Insight”" by Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor. I had heard Dr Taylor’s talk on the TED dot com site and I have to say, it changed my world. It’s spreading virally all over the internet and the book is now a NYTimes Bestseller, so I’m not the only one, but it is the most amazing talk, and the most impactful book I’ve read in years. (Dr T also was named to Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People and Oprah had her on her Soul Series last month and I hear they’re making a movie about her story so you may already have heard of her)
If you haven’t heard Dr Taylor’s TEDTalk, that’s an absolute must. The book is more and deeper and better, but start with the video (it’s 18 minutes). Basically, her story is that she was a 37 yr old Harvard brain scientist who had a massive stroke in the left hemisphere of her brain. Because of her knowledge of how the brain works, and thanks to her amazingly loving and kind mother, she eventually fully recovered (and that part of the book detailing how she did it is inspirational).
There’s a lot of learning and magic in the book, but the reason I so highly recommend My Stroke of Insight to this discussion, is because we have powerfully intelligent left brains that are rational, logical, sequential and grounded in detail and time, and then we have our kinesthetic right brains, where we experience intuition and peace and euphoria. Now that Kurzweil has got us taking all those vitamins and living our best “”Fantastic Voyage”" , the absolute necessity is that we read My Stroke of Insight and learn from Dr Taylor how to achieve balance between our right and left brains. Enjoy!
Curtis — Many thanks for your comments. I agree on Dr. Taylor’s TED Talk - that’s one of our “top ten”. On your suggestion I’ll read her book.