Seeker Blog

Let’s put it this way, the current UK energy policy is not fit for purpose — Professor Ian Fells

Security of electricity supply should now top the political agenda, even above climate change. There will be a shortfall in UK power generation of 23GW by 2020, rising to between 30GW and 35GW by 2027. An impending crisis in power generation is now emerging and could lead to a dramatic shortfall as early as 2012 – 2015. This arises from the closure of ageing nuclear and coal-fired stations. — A Pragmatic Energy Policy for the UK

After a good bit of digging I found the full text of the recently released Fells Associates report here - A Pragmatic Energy Policy for the UK August 2008 [PDF]. It takes a very long time to catch up on electrical generation/distribution once an economy gets behind the demand curve. If Fells is correct, the UK supply problem is more stark — 23GW of nuclear and coal baseload generation will go dark by 2020. Fells concludes that new nuclear power won’t meet the 2020 deadline assuming a 10-year decision to switching online interval. Note: there are several ways to slash new nuclear plant delivery times. Unfortunately none are yet ready to perform in such a short interval as 2020. Arrays of mass-manufactured small nuclear plants looks the most attractive to me, and evidently to venture capitalists — there are at least two startups doing small nukes. Hyperion Power Generation [Santa Fe and Los Alamos, New Mexico — podcast Atomic Show #104] and NuScale Power [Corvallis, Oregon — podcast Atomic Show #100]

In addition, my research implies that there is a global scramble to build new nuclear plants, causing skyrocketing construction cost increases and bottlenecks of key components - such as giant forgings for the pressure vessels.

The report offers an unsurprising mix of stop-gap strategies, mainly building natural gas and coal plants - the latter to be”carbon capture and storage (CCS) ready”, for when the technology becomes proven.

Long term [beyond 2020] the report favors adding to the generation mix large-scale tidal power — the “Severn barrage”. I wonder if this is where the steel interest comes in? The report was commissioned by steel magnate Andrew Cook CBE of William Cook Holdings Limited, Sheffield, UK.

Let’s hope that the UK can avoid the “slow motion train crash” that is derailing the South African economy [which they call “rolling brownouts”] — caused by the government’s deafness to pleas for new plants.

Here’s the Executive Summary from the Fells report:

1.1 Security of energy supply must now be seen as taking priority over everything else, even climate change. UK imports of both gas and oil are accelerating, just as the fragility of supplies from Russia and the Middle East becomes more apparent and the UK heads towards the loss of one third of its generating capacity over the next 12 years. A new energy policy must be scheduled to meet the impending energy gap with an overarching long-term vision that will ensure security of supply, protect the environment, and at the same time, be deemed feasible by the engineers, financiers and utility managers who will have to implement it.

1.2 Current policy is set out in the 2007 White Paper. It supersedes the White Paper of 20032, which had strong elements of wishful thinking, by suggesting that selective renewables, combined with energy efficiency, would satisfy the demand gap without the need to replace the nuclear baseload capacity – an error finally rectified with the January 2008 White Paper on nuclear power.3 Nonetheless, the current 2007 paper is flawed. It misunderstands market prerequisites and technical barriers and is founded on weak energy arithmetic. Yet it is still the platform from which UK energy policy must implement the ambitious political targets of EU policy, in accordance with which 20% of all energy consumption across the EU must be from renewable sources by 2020. The UK commitment is a renewable energy target of 15%. The implications are alarming. We are currently at 1.3%6 – third from bottom in the EU league table with only Luxembourg and Malta below us. This will require a monumental shift in investment and build rate for renewables across all energy sectors. Furthermore, it implies that 40% of electricity will have to come from renewables.7 Currently renewables produce just 4.5%.

1.3 These targets are demonstrably unattainable. In-depth discussions with engineers and utility managers to discover what can actually be done, and the probable consequences of such actions, should have taken place. It might have prevented bizarre pronouncements such as the construction and installation of 7000 offshore wind generators in the North Sea, which would mean installing 10 turbines a day from now to 2020 (utilising the average 60 possible working days per year). This is 10 times the best installation rate achieved anywhere for offshore installation, yet the UK has just one suitable heavy-lifting barge available at the current time. The rush to impose biofuel quotas in motor fuel serves as another example. The full impacts of the rapidly developing biofuels sector with regard to climate change and food supply seem not to have been understood.

1.4 This report addresses the failings that have led to a fundamental undermining of the UK’s security of supply and serves to heighten the sense of urgency about the growing energy gap. Electricity generation in particular is becoming a matter of grave concern.

1.5 The current situation is fragile. Two nuclear stations, Hartlepool and Heysham (a total of 2.4GW) are offline until 2009, and two more, Hunterston and Hinkley, are on reduced output – examples of what to expect from an ageing fleet. The planned decommissioning of nuclear power plant of 7.4GW by 2020 and 9.8GW by 20239(respectively 10% and 13% of current generating capacity) will leave just one plant, Sizewell B, operational. In addition, there is the expected closure of 12GW (15% of current generating capacity) of coal- and oil-fired generating plant by 201610 as a result of the EU Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) of 2008, aimed at reducing emissions. In all a total of 23GW (30% of generating capacity) will need to be replaced by 2020, and from 30GW to 35GW by 2027.11 This is almost entirely base load capacity. Renewables have a role to play, but unrealistic expectations have elevated them above their capabilities. Renewables will not replace base load. The default position is gas, yet our reserves are diminishing to the extent that we will be importing 80% of our gas requirements by 202012, increasing our dependence on supplies from unstable political regimes and volatile markets. Furthermore, this will derail attempts to reduce CO2 emissions, which will continue to rise.

1.6 The ‘market will deliver’ philosophy is wishful thinking. The market cares nothing for the environment. It caters for today’s generation, not tomorrow’s. The market needs the right investment framework and incentives to contemplate long-term projects. The present Government’s vacillation over energy policy, nuclear being the salient example, has severely hindered development. Additionally, procrastination over carbon capture and storage (CCS) is holding back the coal industry from utilising our indigenous supplies. Inconsistent intervention is not helpful either. The renewables market has been distorted through unbalanced support for low-capital renewables with least return in energy terms, such as wind.

1.7 A determined and urgent course of action is of paramount importance to address this major threat to the long-term economy, security and social well being of the United Kingdom. The key elements to a new energy policy are laid out below. They draw together to form a cohesive action plan, the Route Map to Energy Survival for the UK(see page 25), a strategy that determines the priorities and is deemed to be feasible by those who will have to implement it. It demonstrates how a new energy policy must now divide into two distinct timescales – a short-term strategy to deal with the impending energy gap without impeding the long-term strategy of ensuring our energy requirements in an era when oil and gas will become increasingly scarce and the role of electricity takes on an even greater importance in sustaining our civilisation.

2. The key elements of a pragmatic energy policy must satisfy the following three fundamental criteria.
•Ensure security of supply both in the short term (up to 2020) and the long term (2020 – 2050)
•Protect the environment by striving to achieve CO2 and renewable-energy targets
•Remain technically feasible from an engineering perspective