Archive for the 'Nuclear Power' Category



Owen Gleiberman: Inside Movies critic on Pandora’s Promise

Owen Gleiberman knows the typical Sundance slant — very left, very organic, very feel-good-policy preferences. It will be very interesting if Pandora’s Promise gets support in this crowd:

When was the last time you saw a documentary that fundamentally changed the way you think? It’s no secret that just about every political and socially-minded documentary shown at Sundance is preaching to the liberal-left choir. The issue may be dairy farming, human rights abuses in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the marketing of AIDS drugs, or Occupy Wall Street (to list the topics of four festival docs this year), but the point of view is almost always conventionally “progressive” and orthodox. So when Robert Stone, who may be the most under-celebrated great documentary filmmaker in America (watch Oswald’s Ghost if you want to touch the elusive truth of the JFK assassination), arrived at Sundance this year with Pandora’s Promise, a look at the myths and realities of nuclear power, he was walking into the lion’s den. For this isn’t a movie that preaches to the choir. It’s a movie that says: “Stop thinking what you’ve been thinking, because if you don’t, you’re going to collude in wrecking the world.”Pandora’s Promise is built around what should be the real liberal agenda: looking at an issue not with orthodoxy, but with open eyes.

In Pandora’s Promise, Stone interviews a major swath of environmentalists, scientists, and energy planners, all of whom spent years being anti-nuclear power — and then, as they began to look at the evidence, changed their minds. The film begins with a deep examination of the psychology of the anti-nuclear view: how it took hold and became dogma. It goes all the way back to 1945, of course, and the horror of the atomic bomb. From that moment, really, the very word nuclear was tainted. It meant something that was going to kill you, in the form of lethal radiation that you can’t see. By the time of the “No Nukes” protests of the ’70s, to be “anti-nuclear” was to conflate nuclear weapons and nuclear power into a single category of scientific evil, a point of view whipped up, over the years, into a doctrinaire frenzy of righteous fear and loathing by anti-nuclear activists like Dr. Helen Caldicott and reinforced by movies like The China Syndrome and even, in its benign satirical way, The Simpsons.

Stone, a lifelong environmental lefty himself, unravels that thinking. The film’s incredibly articulate — and deeply progressive — spokemen and women explain the nuts and bolts of why nuclear power, manufactured with the sophisticated breeder reactors that are available today, is fundamentally clean, efficient, and, yes, safe. As Richard Rhodes puts it in the movie: “To be anti-nuclear is basically to be in favor of burning fossil fuels.” Pandora’s Promise makes a powerful case that in an age when former Third World countries, striving for modernization, are beginning to consume energy in much vaster amounts (and why shouldn’t they have the right to do so?), none of the alternative energy sources that are commonly talked about by environmentalists (wind, solar, etc.) can begin to fill the planet’s energy needs. Only nuclear energy can. That’s why France, faced with its own energy crisis several decades ago, went nuclear. (Eighty percent of France’s energy is now generated by nuclear power plants.)

Ah, you say, but what about Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima? The ultimate issue raised by nuclear power — the one that, according to conventional progressive thinking, stops the pro-nuclear argument right in its tracks — is, of course, the issue of safety. And the very names of those three locales cast a dark mythological shadow. You hear them and think: Meltdown. Radiation poisoning.Death. Disaster. But this is where, as a society, we desperately need more filmmakers like Robert Stone. Carefully, piece by piece, without hysteria and without dogma, he looks at the evidence of what actually happened during those three infamous catastrophes: the reality of the damage, and the reality of the aftermath. The results, if you truly listen to them, are almost spectacularly counterintuitive. They won’t leave you shaken. They will begin to shake you out of your old tired ways of thinking.

The most startling argument mounted by Pandora’s Promise is that the rise of nuclear power is not merely a good thing, but probably inevitable, because it is, in fact, the only way that we can power the planet and save it at the same time. In what has to be the ultimate liberal-documentary irony, Stone demonstrates that the dire threat of global warming all but demands nuclear power as the key to its solution. Without it, the debate will go on, but carbon dioxide will continue to fill the atmosphere, and liberals everywhere, caught up in reflexive modes of environmental “activism” that are now not just complacent but perilously out-of-date, will continue to let their anxieties trump reality.

 

What if I took a swim in a typical spent nuclear fuel pool?

Randall Munroe answers the captioned question in some detail at XKCD. The following is a bit of a spoiler, but I hope will motivate you to read the whole story:

NewImage

 

XKCD: Fuel Energy Density

Another brilliant illustration from Randall Monroe

Wind farm life cycle output even less than estimated poor results (part 1)

Every energy economist knows that, under present rules, the Renewables Obligation is a scandalous boondoggle — Gordon Hughes.

Boondoggle: Webster’s College Dictionary – the standard US dictionary – offers the following definitions of a boondoggle: “(1) work of little of no value done merely to keep or look busy; (2) a project funded by the federal government out of political favouritism that is of no real value to the community or the nation”.

Wind has one HUGE advantage, it is “Politically Correct” and favored by all the innumerate greenies and politicians. I.e., the ones who know nothing of what it takes to operate a national grid to deliver dependable, affordable energy to essential industries and consumers. But they love the “feel good” energy policies that use middle-lower-income taxes to subsidize investments by rich-taxpayers in  economically unproductive wind and solar projects. Meanwhile efficient base-load nuclear power is widely ignored. Actually that’s an overstatement for the UK – whose nuclear policy is looking more and more sane.

There is a new study by Prof Gordon Hughes, an economist at Edinburgh University: Why is wind power so expensive? An economic analysis [PDF, 42 pages]. The Hughes study documents the magnitude of economic burden imposed by subsidized wind projects. It will curl your hair.

For a gentle introduction I recommend the summary by Robert Mendick, Chief Reporter at The Telegraph. Mendick concentrates on one aspect of the wind boondoggle – the efficiency of the turbines turns out to be less than half what the promoters claim. Less than half what the government proposals and plans assume.

The analysis of almost 3,000 onshore wind turbines — the biggest study of its kind —warns that onshore wind farms will continue to generate electricity effectively for just 12 to 15 years. 

The wind energy industry and the Government base all their calculations on turbines enjoying a lifespan of 20 to 25 years. The study estimates that routine wear and tear will more than double the cost of electricity being produced by wind farms in the next decade.

Older turbines will need to be replaced more quickly than the industry estimates while many more will need to be built onshore if the Government is to meet renewable energy targets by 2020.
The extra cost is likely to be passed on to households, which already pay about £1 billion a year in a consumer subsidy that is added to electricity bills.

The report concludes that a wind turbine will typically generate more than twice as much electricity in its first year than when it is 15 years old.

The report’s author, Prof Gordon Hughes, an economist at Edinburgh University and a former energy adviser to the WorldBank, discovered that the “load factor” — the efficiency rating of a turbine based on the percentage of electricity it actually produces compared with its theoretical maximum — is reduced from 24 per cent in the first 12 months of operation to just 11 per cent after 15 years.

The decline in the output of offshore wind farms, based on a study of Danish wind farms, appears even more dramatic. The load factor for turbines built on platforms in the sea is reduced from 39 per cent to 15 per cent after 10 years.

Please see Part 2 for more on the data that explains the short economic life of wind turbines.

The Nanticoke Energy Centre: Ontario’s hub of clean electricity, motor vehicle fuel, and high value chemicals

A smart article by Steve Aplin: how to convert the Nanticoke coal-fired generating station into a low-carbon source of both electricity and synthetic fuel (which releases the captured carbon when burned). Here’s an excerpt outlining the concept:

(…) The answer: turn Nanticoke into a clean energy centre, which produces low-carbon electricity, zero-carbon hydrogen, low carbon motor vehicle fuel, and low-carbon chemicals. This would involve the following three things.

  1. Convert the eight generators at the plant to fire using the oxy-fuel process. This burns coal in the presence of pure oxygen (not air, which is mostly nitrogen), resulting in a concentrated stream of CO2, which is then far more easily and cheaply captured than current CO2-capture processes, which must separate dilute CO2 from nitrogen.
  2. Make hydrogen by splitting Lake Erie water using the energy from a high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactor, such as Areva’s ANTARES, which is similar to the HTGR that is the technological basis for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. Water-splitting produces both hydrogen and oxygen; the oxygen would be used in step 1, above.

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant, which runs on graphite-moderated enriched uranium and is cooled with helium gas, can generate outlet temperatures above 800 °C, ideal for converting carbon dioxide to carbon monoxide

  3. Use the captured CO2 and manufactured hydrogen to make carbon monoxide (CO). On its own, CO is an extremely valuable precursor chemical; when mixed with hydrogen to form a synthesis gas, it is the carbonaceous raw material for the manufacture of Fischer Tropsch fuel, including gasoline and diesel.

The foregoing would represent the biggest, most ambitious, and most innovative application of the Three Rs—reduce, reuse, recycle—the world has ever seen. Ontario would become the centre of a new fuel manufacturing industry, one that is tied not to the world price of petroleum but to the price of coal and water.

Please read the entire article. And the well-informed comments. This is the kind of thinking that can make a real difference – so different from the familiar twaddle that comforts the political elite who favor “Well that didn’t work, so let’s do more of it”. More of the same feel-good policy is absolutely is going to produce the outcomes described in the PricewaterhouseCoopers report.

Arnie Gundersen – The Facade of Believability

Whilst searching for factual information on the qualifications of anti-nuclear consultant-for-hire Arnie Gundersen I came across a new blog. The critical-thinking proprietor lives in Japan, and was thus disturbed by the unspeakably bad media coverage of the Fukushima Daichi accident. You can see all the related posts with the tag “Wall of Shame”. Among those is a deconstruction of the Gundersen resume, ending with this summary: 

Gundersen has got a lot of play in the international media, and his videos have spread virally via bilingual Japanese people who have translated and posted them on the Internet. I hope that I’ve shown that Gundersen is not a trustworthy source of information about Fukushima for the following reasons:

  • He has been dishonest about his qualifications and work experience
  • He misrepresents himself (or at least allows others to misrepresent him) as part of the nuclear industry
  • He has an undeclared direct financial interest in increasing his profile as an anti-nuclear power consultant in order to attract new clients
  • He subscribes to a theory of low-level radiation damage that has been discredited
  • He has made claims that have been proven to be false
  • He has made claims that don’t stand up to investigation, are anecdotal, and are unfalsifiable
  • As time goes on and Fukushima produces less dramatic news, Gundersen’s reports become more dramatic.

I hope this has been helpful. I wish that the media would be a little less credulous when dealing with experts, and challenge statements that sound wrong, but failing that, it’s our job to not take whatever an “expert” says at face value and to ask questions.

Please comment if you have any factual references on Gundersen’s career. Especially any evidence of experience relevant to commercial nuclear power generation (that is the “expertise” that he markets).

The best fact-based Gundersen reference that I know of is Rod Adams, e.g., on résumé inflation. Unfortunately it looks like Gundersen is “house cleaning” his on-line history, so one of Rod’s key links has been taken down at the activist NECNP.org. In fact Gundersen doesn’t even seem to exist at NECNP.org

UPDATE: a resourceful reader did the research necessary to locate the disclosure of the Gundersen CV, plus some additional expertise:

http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML0808/ML080840527.pdf - Page 84 – CV

 
http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML0808/ML080860095.pdf - Page 6 – Some other expertise

Germany: The High Price Of Phasing Out Nuclear Power

Thibaut Madelin summarizes the current state of magical thinking:

BERLIN – After the initial euphoria, it’s back to earth for Germans. The decision to exit nuclear power was initially quite popular, but today many are having second thoughts. Their main issue with the decision is its resulting cost, which is paid for by households and small businesses but has spared big industrial consumers.

When she decided to quit the atom, just after the Fukushima disaster, Chancellor Angela Merkel had promised that electricity prices would stay affordable. A year later, there is a risk electricity bills will surge to the point where Peter Altmaier, the new environment and energy minister, is working on a project to reform energy financing and subsidies. He intends to present a first draft in the fall for a reform that will take place after the September 2013 elections.

“The implementation of this energy transition has to be reasonable from an economic perspective and acceptable from a financial one,” said the minister last week. “In this context, energy prices in Germany cannot differ too strongly and durably from those applied in the countries of our main competitors.”

The contrast is manifest between the two banks of the Rhine. A French household pays an average of 140 euros per megawatt-hour for its electricity, whereas a German family has to pay approximately 260 euros.

(…)

Thanks to Forum on Energy for the link.

German Energy Agency: Fossil-fueled Power Plants Needed to Provide 60% of Secure Capacity in 2050

Scott Luft’s headline sums up the mess in Germany — we know the developed world needs to reach zero fossil emissions by 2060. Germany will be stuck at 60% unless they “U-turn” on nuclear.

If you want to get really depressed about German Energy Policy, follow the German Energy Blog [RSS]. They cover the legislative and legal topics in detail.

The German energy train wreck increases coal burning 5% (already)

Barry Brook tweeted the link to this Yale360 digest which sums up the awful impact of Germany’s no-nuclear policy. Since the 1970′s it has been proven repeatedly, when the growth of nuclear is blocked (e.g., by Greenpeace), the result is more coal burning. The choice has been either nuclear or coal. That is true once again for Germany because they have rich deposits of lignite with a cost per thermal unit lower than natural gas. In other regions the substitution for nuclear today might well be natural gas. 

The German government’s decision to phase out all of the nation’s nuclear power plants following the 2011 Fukushima disaster has led to an increase in coal-burningwithin Europe’s largest economy. Coal consumption in Germany has grown by 4.9 percent since Chancellor Angela Merkel announced plans to shift away from nuclear power over the next decade, according to a Bloomberg News report. While German leaders intended the new policy to strengthen the nation’s reliance on renewable energy, Germany’s largest utilities have built coal plants instead of cleaner-burning natural gas projects because coal plants are cheaper. The collapse of the European Union’s carbon permit costs also means that there is little penalty for burning coal. “Angela Merkel’s policy has created an incentive structure which has the effect of partially replacing nuclear with coal, the dirtiest fuel that’s responsible for much of the growth in the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions since 1990,” Dieter Helm, an energy policy professor at the University of Oxford told Bloomberg News. Worldwide, the amount of coal burned increased 5.4 percent last year and accounted for 30 percent of global energy production.

Shunning Nuclear Power
Will Lead to a Warmer World

Shunning Nuclear Power Will Lead to a Warmer World

Physicist Spencer Weart argues that if we allow our fears of nuclear energy to block the building of a significant number of new nuclear plants, we will be choosing a far more perilous option: the intensified burning of planet-warming fossil fuels.
READ THE e360 REPORT

Yes, natural gas is less damaging than coal, but it is not zero – which is what we need: zero-carbon substitution for all power generation.

Isn’t This Ridiculous? Gates Goes to Korea to Develop Nuclear

William Tucker at his new blog Nuclear Street

I’m just going to throw this in as a warm-up because it’s my first blog, but isn’t this ridiculous? Bill Gates is in negotiations with Korea to develop the sodium-cooled fast reactor, the one we abandoned in the 1990s and many people think is the ultimate technology. This is on top of Gates going to China three months ago to develop the Travelling Wave. This is America’s #1 entrepreneur, one of the two or three richest men in the world, and doesn’t even make any attempt to develop these technologies in this country. In fact, the American press doesn’t even report it. This article has only appeared in Korean papers.

Can we really expect to remain a leader in this technology when our best minds have to go abroad to look for progress? Our grandchildren are going to be paying dearly for this.

Please comment if you have any details on what Gates is doing in Korea. Does “sodium-cooled fast reactor” imply a design like the IFR (Integral Fast Reactor)?


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