The “Drop” an iPad-connected smart scale – stressless baking?

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Here’s an idea. Check out their promotional video. The seamless baking process looks so painless that I’m thinking Christmas present for somebody special? 

Does Drop deliver $80 of value to a galley that already has a digital scale? Maybe – if the software made it nearly painless to convert our existing favorites to their gram-based scheme. The Wired review closes with similar thoughts: 

There is one significant limitation: In order to ensure a smooth user experience, the hardware, app, and content all need to be mashed together—meaning buyers will be stuck using Drop’s collection of recipes at the outset. This strategy gives budding bakers a tremendous amount of power, but also means there will be a relatively small amount of content. The team is working on an importer tool that will allow cooks to add and share their favorite recipes, but for now buyers will have to trust the taste of Irish techies.

Does it deliver $80 of value to a galley that already has a digital scale? If the software made it nearly painless to convert our existing favorites to their gram-based scheme… OTOH for a young twenty-something workaholic techie, this could be a no-brainer joy.
This reminds me a bit of Inkling – very cool interactive books, but ONLY their catalog. No sale here. Regarding Drop, perhaps for a young twenty-something workaholic techie, this could be a no-brainer.

The search for Internet intelligence



What type of evidence would you need to be convinced that there was an internet intelligence? What is the minimal proof you would need?

We are searching for answers to that question as much as for the glimmers of the thing itself. Here is the first draft of the search manifesto:

The Search for Internet Intelligence

A non-human intelligence operating within and at the scale of the global communications network is possible. Such an intelligence would have a huge impact on our global civilization. We seek tools and skills for detecting such an intelligence with falsifiable and scientific evidence. We recognize the low probability that such an AI currently exists but believe the search would also yield beneficial results in the field of general AI, animal cognition, and advance telecommunications.

We are looking for computer scientists, cognition experts, programmers, and anyone willing and able to craft a research program for this global investigation.

David Eagleman, neuroscientist and author of the upcoming Incognito, is my co-conspirator in this quest. Other creative scientists have expressed interest in pursuing this idea. To join this quest, sign up here.

Source: Kevin Kelly. Unlikely, but what if? Kevin writes:

While detecting an ET intelligence would overturn terrestrial religions forever, detecting a global internet intelligence would have wide-ranging ramifications for society. We’d have daily contact with an AI much larger than us, one that presumably would be steadily increasing in power every 18 months (Moore’s Law). And this AI is embedded in the central nervous system of our global economy and culture. It’s what we are connected to 24/7. It is also increasingly acts as our exo-brain. If it has its own degree of intelligence, we should want to know.

 

The least resistance to new ideas

 

Kevin Kelly:

Many years ago the San Francisco Chronicle published a short column in which the writer mentioned that he had been traveling in India, and when he told the clerk at his hotel in New Delhi that he was from the San Francisco Bay Area the clerk responded, “Oh that is the center of the universe” Um, mumbled the traveller, and why do you say that? “Because the center of the universe is wherever there is the least resistance to new ideas.”

I have not been able to come up with a better description of San Francisco’s special relation to futurism. In my experience this is true: more new ideas per person bubble up in the Bay Area than anywhere else on Earth — at this moment.

Do read the whole thing.

 

Create new Silicon Valleys by exploiting regulatory arbitrage

Marc Andreessen is co-founder of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Marc has a very smart article out last week on what works and doesn't work to grow centers of innovation in new locations. He titled this piece aptly Turn Detroit into Drone Valley as you can see here [emphasis mine].

Imagine a Bitcoin Valley, for instance, where some country fully legalizes cryptocurrencies for all financial functions. Or a Drone Valley, where a particular region removes all legal barriers to flying unmanned aerial vehicles locally. A Driverless Car Valley in a city that allows experimentation with different autonomous car designs, redesigned roadways and safety laws. A Stem Cell Valley. And so on.

There’s a key difference from the if-you-build-it-they-will-come argument of yore. Here, the focus is more on driving regulatory competition between city, state and national governments. There are many new categories of innovation out there and entrepreneurs eager to go after opportunities within each of them. Rethinking the regulatory barriers in specific industries would better draw the startups, researchers and divisions of big companies that want to innovate in the vanguard of a particular domain—while also exploring and addressing many of the difficult regulatory issues along the way.

Why this approach? Compared with previous innovation-cluster efforts where governments contrived to do something unnatural, this proposal flows from what governments naturally do best: create, or rather, relax laws.

This is one of those ideas that seems completely obvious once you have seen it. We can quibble with that last phrase “what governments naturally do best: create, or rather, relax laws.” because governments are terrible at relaxing laws. But the possibility was demonstrated in America by airline and telecom deregulation.

I see this sort of regulatory competition as a variation on Paul Romer's theme of Charter Cities. I've not succeeded to think of a way to apply Romer's concept directly to an advanced economy which is being drowned by a mountain of obsolete law and regulation. There are far too many powerful forces who like the status quo just fine. But perhaps Marc's ideas could be implemented at sufficiently small scale that the regulatory reform could be implemented before the status quo interests squashed the innovation.

There is much more to this Andreeseen essay, so be sure to read the original at Politico.

For background on why this will be so hard to implement in the US see Steven Teles on Kludgeocracy.

Homework assignment: how can we structure such a proposal so that politicians would be motivated to take on the change?

 

Tyler Cowen: Tesla Says “All Our Patent Are Belong To You”

Tyler Cowen has some very big news from Tesla.

Elon Musk writes:

Yesterday, there was a wall of Tesla patents in the lobby of our Palo Alto headquarters. That is no longer the case. They have been removed, in the spirit of the open source movement, for the advancement of electric vehicle technology.

Tesla Motors was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If we clear a path to the creation of compelling electric vehicles, but then lay intellectual property landmines behind us to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal. Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology.

When I started out with my first company, Zip2, I thought patents were a good thing and worked hard to obtain them. And maybe they were good long ago, but too often these days they serve merely to stifle progress, entrench the positions of giant corporations and enrich those in the legal profession, rather than the actual inventors. After Zip2, when I realized that receiving a patent really just meant that you bought a lottery ticket to a lawsuit, I avoided them whenever possible.

…We believe that Tesla, other companies making electric cars, and the world would all benefit from a common, rapidly-evolving technology platform.

Technology leadership is not defined by patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this regard.

I believe that this announcement will be discussed in business schools for years to come much like Henry Ford’s announcement of the $5 a day wage.

 

Considering self-publishing?

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If you are an accomplished writer with something to say, and you are not already involved in direct publishing, then you really should consider this option — even if you dream of acquiring a power-agent and a traditional publisher (note: publishers are much more likely to give you a look if you have sales and followers). The 10-cent summary:

1. Writing is really hard.

2. Direct publishing is really easy.

3. Selling a LOT of books will require you to put effort into promotion (letting people know you exist, acquiring a following that brings buyers to you by referral).

4. The sooner you get published the faster you will build an audience and learn what your audience wants. If you have only the first 100 pages of your great book written, and are struggling to get beyond that, then think about whether you can make an interesting, useful small book out of what you have already done. Several of my favorite books of 2013-14 are examples of these short books that need not be a page longer:

Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy, 98 pages, by Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee 

The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better, 128 pages, by Tyler Cowen

An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies, 304 pages, by Tyler Cowen

Average Is Over, 304 pages, by Tyler Cowen

What I’ve learned from reading various authors who have experience with both independent and traditional publishing is that most authors should “just get on with it, using Amazon as your first and primary channel”. By “most authors” I mean those writing for the general audience, which would include e.g. “How to do great photography with Adobe Lightroom”. If your primary market is not English I have no knowledge of appropriate alternatives, but I’m pretty sure that Amazon is not ideal for the Chinese market.

For the mechanics of getting your book out there, start here with Amazon: Take Control with Independent Publishing: This is Amazon’s homepage for both digital and print publishing.

For an experienced author’s perspective, I recommend How To Self-Publish Your Book Through Amazon. Author Deborah Jacobs, recounts her first-hand experience with both digital and print, as well as channel alternatives: Amazon exclusive vs. a personal website. Deborah gives actual revenue numbers for her print and digital sales. 

Amazon’s suite of services for independent authors makes it possible for me and many other authors to bypass traditional publishing companies. It gives us the tools to create and sell digital books; print and sell paperback copies on demand; add author pages and even market books. Here are five Amazon services, all of them free to set up, that every indie author needs to know about.

Kindle Direct Publishing. This service, known by the shorthand KDP, enables indie authors to sell the digital version of their books on Amazon.com (or other Amazon country websites). There’s no charge to upload the file. Authors get royalties of 35% to 70% of the sale price, depending on whether the book is sold on KDP or through another Amazon service called KDP Select (more about that below).

Unlike most other digital retailers, KDP uses the format known as “mobi.” This is simply the file format for digital books that Amazon uses, and it works on all Kindle devices. You can upload your book on Amazon using other formats as explained on the Amazon site, including ePub, which is the most popular one (that’s what Apple uses), and others such as HTML, Doc, and RTF. However, in my experience it looks better if you start out with a mobi file because any formatting you create – for example for images, charts and tables – stays intact.

Let’s say you have written your book in Word and want to convert it to mobi. You can do this using the free software Calibre (available for PC or Mac). I’ve used the Mac version and it works very well if your Word document has no page numbers. For best results it should include links to each chapter in a table of contents that’s formatted to meet Amazon’s specifications listed here.

{snip}

One of the nice things about KDP is that Amazon does not require digital exclusivity. So authors can still sell the same digital book anywhere else on the Internet on through other stores like The Nook Book Store or iTunes.

If you want to sell a lot of books it looks like KDP Select is worthwhile. And like most publishing sources I’ve read Jacobs found that free and discount offerings of her works paid off in awareness and higher sales. It’s probably obvious that strong sales are unlikely unless you put some effort into promotion. Deborah explains some of her methods and results.

… Based on my conversations with other indie authors and their posts on various message boards and blogs, other authors also see huge sales on days when their books are discounted, and even more massive downloads on days when those books are free. This, in turn, leads to higher than usual sales on the days right after promotions (when the book has gone back to its regular price), and generally helps to expand awareness of the book.

More tips:

10 Visual Steps To Self-Publishing Your Book On Amazon (excellent, simple how-to get a Kindle book done).

Amazon simplified formatting guide (how to prepare your book for pain-free publishing) 

HOW TO: Self Publish Your Book with Amazon’s CreateSpace (if you want to do a print version).

How My Book Became A (Self-Published) Best Seller

Some background reading on the direct publishing revolution:

JK Rowling blows up the eBookstore business

Confessions of a Publisher: “We’re in Amazon’s Sights and They’re Going to Kill Us”

How crowdsourcing helps robots substitute for humans

MIT'S Erik Brynjolfsson said “We’re at a real inflection point in terms of artificial intelligence and machine learning. Things are speeding up.”

How crowdsourcing helps robots:

White-collar jobs were once deemed mostly immune to such automation, but that is no longer true, either. Carl Benedikt Frey, an economist, and Michael Osborne, a professor of machine learning, at Oxford University estimate that about half of American jobs — sailors, paralegals, you name it — are susceptible to automation. “Software substitution, whether it’s for drivers or waiters or nurses” is coming, Bill Gates said recently at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “Twenty years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.”

 

Windows 8 is a disaster. Period.

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The reason this happened is that while Sinofsky had the maniacal power and force of will of a Steve Jobs, he lacked Jobs’ best gift: An innate understanding of good design. Windows 8 is not well-designed. It’s a mess. But Windows 8 is a bigger problem than that. Windows 8 is a disaster in every sense of the word.

This is not open to debate, is not part of some cute imaginary world where everyone’s opinion is equally valid or whatever. Windows 8 is a disaster. Period.

While some Windows backers took a wait-and-see approach and openly criticized me for being honest about this, I had found out from internal sources immediately that the product was doomed from the get-go, feared and ignored by customers, partners and other groups in Microsoft alike. Windows 8 was such a disaster that Steven Sinofsky was ejected from the company and his team of lieutenants was removed from Windows in a cyclone of change that triggered a reorganization of the entire company. Even Sinofsky’s benefactor, Microsoft’s then-CEO Steve Ballmer, was removed from office. Why did all this happen? Because together, these people set the company and Windows back by years and have perhaps destroyed what was once the most successful software franchise of all time.

That quote is from Windows guru Paul Thurott, Feb 9 2014 in What the Heck is Happening to Windows? I don’t have an opinion — but it is interesting when an insider like Thurott says words like “disaster” and “destroyed”.

Brooke Allen: If you manage your time terribly, you’ll get more done

This essay isn't quite as silly as it sounds. Example, To-do lists are best if you cannot remember where you put them

The great thing about writing something down is that your subconscious brain will stop obsessing about it and you can relax and go to sleep or the movies or whatever. But the bad thing about to-do lists is that you might feel compelled to do all those things. Luckily, I’m great at making and losing lists. The list helps me get to sleep tonight, and then tomorrow when I cannot find it I only do what I remember to do, which turns out to be the important things.

Also, keep “did” lists. If you track all you’ve already done, the little bit still to do will seem less daunting.

 

Marc Andreessen: why Bitcoin matters

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What technology am I talking about? Personal computers in 1975, the Internet in 1993, and — I believe — Bitcoin in 2014.

This may not be the best essay on Bitcoin, but it is definitely the best essay that I have read. Because I respect Marc Andreessen I pay attention when he decides to write publicly. And when I see that Andreessen Horowitz has invested nearly $50 million in Bitcoin-related startups, that gets my completely focused attention.

Media coverage typically talks about much the value of a Bitcoin has risen (or fallen). Or how Bitcoin is a vehicle for buying drugs and guns. I think you will better understand the significance of Bitcoin by thinking of a fraud-free VISA payments system with nearly zero fees and no minimum transaction. That creates possibilities. Once the infrastructure is in place Bitcoin will enable many possibilities that are way beyond a no-fee VISA. Here’s just one of Marc’s many cases: Remittances. The hard-working people who picked your strawberries are sending cross-border remittances to their family. A big chunk of the funds sent (order of magnitude 10%) is lost to bank-fees and funds-transfer agents. A Bitcoin-based payment system will drop that 10% fee to nearly nothing. That will have a huge impact on the workers’ welfare.

Andreessen summarizes why Silicon Valley is “all lathered up”:

The practical consequence of solving this problem is that Bitcoin gives us, for the first time, a way for one Internet user to transfer a unique piece of digital property to another Internet user, such that the transfer is guaranteed to be safe and secure, everyone knows that the transfer has taken place, and nobody can challenge the legitimacy of the transfer. The consequences of this breakthrough are hard to overstate.

What kinds of digital property might be transferred in this way? Think about digital signatures, digital contracts, digital keys (to physical locks, or to online lockers), digital ownership of physical assets such as cars and houses, digital stocks and bonds … and digital money.

All these are exchanged through a distributed network of trust that does not require or rely upon a central intermediary like a bank or broker. And all in a way where only the owner of an asset can send it, only the intended recipient can receive it, the asset can only exist in one place at a time, and everyone can validate transactions and ownership of all assets anytime they want.
(…)
Bitcoin is an Internet-wide distributed ledger. You buy into the ledger by purchasing one of a fixed number of slots, either with cash or by selling a product and service for Bitcoin. You sell out of the ledger by trading your Bitcoin to someone else who wants to buy into the ledger. Anyone in the world can buy into or sell out of the ledger any time they want — with no approval needed, and with no or very low fees. The Bitcoin “coins” themselves are simply slots in the ledger — analogous in some ways to seats on a stock exchange, except much more broadly applicable to real world transactions.

The Bitcoin ledger is a new kind of payment system. Anyone in the world can pay anyone else in the world any amount of value of Bitcoin by simply transferring ownership of the corresponding slot in the ledger. Put value in, transfer it, the recipient gets value out, no authorization required, and in many cases, no fees.

That last part is enormously important. Bitcoin is the first Internet-wide payment system where transactions either happen with no fees or very low fees (down to fractions of pennies). Existing payment systems charge fees of around 2 percent to three percent — and that’s in the developed world. In lots of other places, there either are no modern payment systems or the rates are significantly higher. We’ll come back to that.

Bitcoin is a digital bearer instrument. It is a way to exchange money or assets between parties with no preexisting trust: a string of numbers is sent over email or text message in the simplest case. The sender doesn’t need to know or trust the receiver or vice versa. Related, there are no chargebacks — this is the part that is literally like cash — if you have the money or the asset, you can pay with it; if you don’t, you can’t. This is brand new. This has never existed in digital form before.

Bitcoin is a digital currency, whose value is based directly on two things: use of the payment system today — volume and velocity of payments running through the ledger — and speculation on future use of the payment system. This is one part that is confusing people. It’s not as much that the Bitcoin currency has some arbitrary value and then people are trading with it; it’s more that people can trade with Bitcoin (anywhere, everywhere, with no fraud and no or very low fees) and as a result it has value.

If you give your attention to Marc’s essay for 30 minutes I think you will understand why his firm is actively seeking Bitcoin-related opportunities. Oh, I hear that Amazon will launch a Bitcoin payment window soon. Just kidding, but think about how skinny Amazon’s margins are – and the impact on profits when the 2 to 3% credit card fee goes to 0.01% for purchases by Bitcoin customers. Think about the network effects when Amazon starts accepting Bitcoin.