Archive for the 'Transportation' Category



A Bill of Goods? Assessing the Transportation Legislation

 

(Photo: Tiberiu Ana)

Good news from Eric A. Morris at Freakonomics: No earmarks this time (there were 6,371 in the 2005 legislation). Amazing, that makes this a historic bill! The HSR- type boondoggles are there, but not the Senate’s HSR spendathon.

Okay, in this post let’s start off on the bright side. At a time when the two parties cannot agree on the menu at the Congressional cafeteria, the Republicans and Democrats have found something they can agree on. After three years of debate and nine temporary stopgap extensions, Congress and the President have enacted new transportation authorization legislation. This bill divvies up the gas tax money, plus some miscellaneous revenue from other sources (more on this later), and funds and regulates the federal surface transportation program for the next 27 months. 

(…) However, one high point is the liberalization of the regulations surrounding tolling on the Interstates, as long as tolls are levied only on new capacity or underused carpool lanes. I’ve made the case for such tolls here and here. If done correctly, they will be a win all-around: for government, for taxpayers, and for drivers—even, believe it or not, for drivers who never choose to use the new tolled lanes. 

(…) One other plus from my perspective: the Senate’s Title V provisions for increased funding of high-speed rail were left out of the legislation. I’ve written a bunch about my skepticism on HSR (herehere, and here). I will miss many things about California when I move to South Carolina in a couple of weeks. But at least my health insurer is cutting my premiums because of a sharp drop in my chances of dropping dead of from apoplexy after reading about California’s HSR program.

High speed rail monorail economics

Please don’t miss Alex Tabarrock’s analysis – best read this with your seat belts secured and adequate sedatives available – because your “public servants” are hard at work “doing something”. Meanwhile the low-hanging fruit of e.g., high-productivity rail infrastructure is strangled by the lack of relatively tiny amounts of investment.

 

High speed rail, especially California’s project, looks to me to be monorail economics, a costly boondoggle whose appeal lies not in rational calculation (also here) but in the desire of some politicians (and voters) to feel visionary and sexy. In theory, CA HSR might work but the inevitable reviews, delays, lawsuits and special interest payoffs make the prospects of a beneficial project look dim, demosclerosis kills.

Slow speed rail, however, i.e. freight transport, isn’t sexy but Warren Buffett is investing in rail and maybe we should as well. In particular, there are basic infrastructure projects with potentially high payoffs. Congestion in Chicago, for example, is so bad that freight passing through Chicago often slows down to less than the pace of an electric wheel chair. Improvements are sometimes as simple as replacing 19th century technology with 20th century (not even 21st century!) technology. Even today, for example:

…engineers at some points have to get out of their cabins, walk the length of the train back to the switch — a mile or more — operate the switch, and then trudge back to their place at the head of the train before setting out again.

 

In a useful article Phillip Longman points out that there are choke points on the Eastern Seaboard which severely reduce the potential for rail:

 

…railroads can capture only 2 percent of the container traffic traveling up and down the eastern seaboard because of obscure choke points, such as the Howard Street Tunnel in downtown Baltimore. The tunnel is too small to allow double-stack container trains through, and so antiquated it’s been listed on the National Register of Historic Places since 1973. When it shut down in 2001 due to a fire, trains had to divert as far as Cincinnati to get around it. Owner CSX has big plans for capturing more truck traffic from I-95, and for creating room for more passenger trains as well, but can’t do any of this until it finds the financing to fix or bypass this tunnel and make other infrastructure improvements down the line. In 2007, it submitted a detailed plan to the U.S. Department of Transportation to build a steel wheel interstate from Washington to Miami, but no federal funding has been forthcoming.

 

I strongly recommend that you finish Alex’s essay, then head straight over to the referenced Phillip Longman article.

 

Does Airport Security Really Make Us Safer?

… As you stand in endless lines this holiday season, here’s a comforting thought: all those security measures accomplish nothing, at enormous cost. …Since 9/11, the U.S. has spent more than $1.1 trillion on homeland security.

The only effective policy out of all this post 9/11 waste was the inexpensive and obvious hardening of airplane cockpit doors. Largely based upon discussions with our favorite security guru Bruce Schneier, this Charles Mann article demonstrates the reality of security theater:

To a large number of security analysts, this expenditure makes no sense. The vast cost is not worth the infinitesimal benefit. Not only has the actual threat from terror been exaggerated, they say, but the great bulk of the post-9/11 measures to contain it are little more than what Schneier mocks as “security theater”: actions that accomplish nothing but are designed to make the government look like it is on the job. In fact, the continuing expenditure on security may actually have made the United States less safe.

US voters – you can stop this nonsense.

Think You’re Multitasking? Think Again!

I’ve been researching what neuroscience evidence we have that explains the risks of DWD (Driving While Distracted), such as mobile phone usage. Is multitasking really possible? Do some humans have this capacity? So far all the evidence that I’ve found says no – multitasking is a myth. Examples:

Stanford – Clifford Nass et al (press release); fire walled paper here:

But after putting about 100 students through a series of three tests, the researchers realized those heavy media multitaskers are paying a big mental price.

“They’re suckers for irrelevancy,” said communication Professor Clifford Nass, one of the researchers whose findings are published in the Aug. 24 edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “Everything distracts them.”

Social scientists have long assumed that it’s impossible to process more than one string of information at a time. The brain just can’t do it. But many researchers have guessed that people who appear to multitask must have superb control over what they think about and what they pay attention to.

Is there a gift?

So Nass and his colleagues, Eyal Ophir and Anthony Wagner, set out to learn what gives multitaskers their edge. What is their gift?

“We kept looking for what they’re better at, and we didn’t find it,” said Ophir, the study’s lead author and a researcher in Stanford’s Communication Between Humans and Interactive Media Lab.

University of Michigan – Daniel Weissman et al:

(…) And it seems as if we’re focusing on all these tasks simultaneously, as if we’ve become true masters of doing 10 things at once.

But, brain researchers say, that’s not really the case.

Multitasking: A Human Delusion?

“People can’t multitask very well, and when people say they can, they’re deluding themselves,” said neuroscientist Earl Miller. And, he said, “The brain is very good at deluding itself.”

Miller, a Picower professor of neuroscience at MIT, says that for the most part, we simply can’t focus on more than one thing at a time.

What we can do, he said, is shift our focus from one thing to the next with astonishing speed.

“Switching from task to task, you think you’re actually paying attention to everything around you at the same time. But you’re actually not,” Miller said.

“You’re not paying attention to one or two things simultaneously, but switching between them very rapidly.”

Miller said there are several reasons the brain has to switch among tasks. One is that similar tasks compete to use the same part of the brain.

“Think about writing an e-mail and talking on the phone at the same time. Those things are nearly impossible to do at the same time,” he said.

“You cannot focus on one while doing the other. That’s because of what’s called interference between the two tasks,” Miller said. “They both involve communicating via speech or the written word, and so there’s a lot of conflict between the two of them.”

Researchers say they can actually see the brain struggling. And now they’re trying to figure out the details of what’s going on.

Putting The Mind To The Test

At a lab at the University of Michigan, researchers are using an MRI scanner to photograph test subjects’ brains as they take on different tasks.

During a recent test, Daniel Weissman, the neuroscientist in charge of the experiment, explained that a man lying inside the scanner would be performing different tasks, depending on the color of two numbers he sees on a screen.

“If the two digits are one color — say, red — the subject decides which digit is numerically larger,” Weissman said. “On the other hand, if the digits are a different color — say green — then the subject decides which digit is actually printed in a larger font size.”

The tests can be tricky — which is the point. After an attempt, the technician told the test subject, “OK, do the same thing, except try to go faster this time.”

MRI studies like this one, Weissman said, have shown that when the man in the scanner sees green, his brain has to pause before responding — to round up all the information it has about the green task.

When the man sees red, his brain pauses again — to push aside information about the green task and replace it with information about the red task.

I think the practical question is political. How do we motivate politicians to legislate measures that will stop driving with mobiles? It’s not a technical issue. E.g., if Apple Stores can detect a person wishing to pickup an order by their mobile signal, an auto can detect that a mobile is switched on when the driver attempts to start or drive. Meanwhile, we have prosecution.

EcoMotors: the Engine That Changes Everything?

ecomotors.jpg

Charles referred me to EcoMotors, Esquire 2010 Car Awards/Innovation of the Year:

Where typical engines have one piston per cylinder, hammering up and down like a fist against a ceiling, the OPOC — which was designed by a former chief powertrain engineer at Volkswagen — has two pistons per cylinder that come together and pull apart like hands clapping. The pistons travel only half as far, meaning they can complete a cycle twice as fast, which lets OPOC generate twice the power of an equivalent standard engine — the same power in a package half the size. Further innovations in fuel delivery and exhaust and the innate efficiency advantages of the two-stroke cycle mean the system offers, conservatively, 50 percent reduction in fuel usage with no reduction in power, no increase in emissions, weight savings of 50 percent, and cost savings of 20 percent.

EcoMotors International has attracted Bill Gates and Vinod Khosla as venture investors for a $23.5M B round. To achieve zero carbon emissions we need to transition light vehicles to EV, all electric drive trains. But that will take several fleet turnovers, and electric generation in most countries is far from zero carbon. While fossil power generation is replaced by nuclear and a bit of wind/solar we need to cut internal combustions emissions radically. Ecomotors may have part of the answer.

Speculation: a relatively light vehicle like a Honda Civic powered by this engine is likely to be simpler, cheaper and fuel efficiency competitive with hybrids like the Prius.

Detroit’s Decline and the Folly of Light Rail

Harvard’s urban economist Ed Glaeser wrote this little essay last spring. US president Obama and his advisors really need to spend some time with Glaeser. Here’s a fragment of Ed’s concluding paragraph:

(…) The defining characteristic of declining cities is that they have plenty of infrastructure relative to the level of demand. Detroit didn’t need the People Mover—an expensive monorail that glides over empty streets. And today, a Light Rail project is being pitched by the federal government, which seems to have learned nothing from the failures of past follies.

Neither Detroit nor the U.S. suffer from any profound transportation problem that can only be fixed with vast federal spending. The country doesn’t need more People Movers. It needs unleashed, educated entrepreneurs—and they will only be held back by taxes being funneled into fanciful make-work projects in a futile attempt to fix our economic malaise.

BlackBerry outage made roads safer

So say the police in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. This is an accidental natural experiment demonstrating the truth of the Texas A&M texting study I reported last week.

A dramatic fall in traffic accidents this week has been directly linked to the three-day disruption in BlackBerry services.

In Dubai, traffic accidents fell 20 per cent from average rates on the days BlackBerry users were unable to use its messaging service. In Abu Dhabi, the number of accidents this week fell 40 per cent and there were no fatal accidents.

On average there is a traffic accident every three minutes in Dubai, while in Abu Dhabi there is a fatal accident every two days.

Lt Gen Dahi Khalfan Tamim, the chief of Dubai Police, and Brig Gen Hussein Al Harethi, the director of the Abu Dhabi Police traffic department, linked the drop in accidents to the disruption of BlackBerry services between Tuesday and Thursday.

The following comments from the chief of Dubai Police illustrate the sort of anti-DWD actions we need to be taking:

Gen Tamim likewise warned that Dubai Police will soon be using electronic evidence against drivers who cause accidents while using their smart devices.

“We have the capability to know who sent what when, and if an accident occurs while someone was messaging we will prove it and present the electronic evidence to the Public Prosecutor, and charge the driver with the costs of retrieving that evidence,” he said.

Dubai already has high cellphone fines — but the fines are not sufficient, especially in the Dubai area where many of the drivers would not be inconvenienced by a paltry $10,000 fine. Knowing that you could well go to prison due to electronic evidence should be a bigger deterrent than fines.

More on the neuroscience of DWD.

Texting and Driving, Even Worse Than Previously Thought

Ben Brooks links Texas A&M University’s test track study:

…Participants were on a closed, wide, track driving 30 miles per hour while texting and there were “many close calls”.

I hope all the texters read this study! From the Reuters summary:

…Drivers were asked to stop when they saw a flashing yellow light, and their reaction times were recorded, Yager said.

The typical time it took a driver who was not texting to respond to the flashing light was one to two seconds. But when the driver was texting, the reaction time extended to three to four seconds, and the texting motorist was 11 times more likely to miss the flashing light altogether.

Yager said the reaction time was the same whether the driver was typing a message or reading one.

“The act of reading and writing a text message are equally impairing and equally dangerous,” she said.

Yager said the research differed from previous studies in that it involved participants driving actual vehicles, not driving simulators.

This is one of the reasons that we avoid cycling on roads with a lot of auto traffic. It is too dangerous now to share the road with distracted texting/phoning drivers. Even a bike lane doesn’t protect the cyclist from a swerving DWD driver (Driving While Distracted).

Why a lighter bike doesn’t make you faster

Given this research I don’t think I can justify that $10,000 carbon fiber bike:

I’m very late to Jeremy Groves‘s wonderful little paper where, using himself as a subject, he timed his bike commute on a heavy steel bike and on a much lighter carbon bike. After riding 1,520 miles back and forth from Sheffield to Chesterfield Royal Hospital and carefully timing every journey, he came to an inescapable conclusion: the lighter bike wasn’t any faster than the heavier one. And this on a long journey where small differences would, you would think, add up: the round-trip commute was 27 miles long, with 2,766 feet of total ascent. That’s the kind of uphills where saving 9lbs of bike makes a real difference.

[From Why a lighter bike doesn’t make you faster]

California High-Speed Rail Project to Cost More Than Expected

What a surprise.

When the California High Speed Rail project was put before voters, its backers estimated that it would cost $33 billion. Fairly quickly thereafter, planners revised that estimate to $43 billion, a 25% increase.
But that seems to have been giddily overoptimistic. According to the Mercury News, the state now expects the first leg of California’s high speed rail is to come in over budget. Waaaaaaaay over budget (H/T Reihan Salam):

The California High-Speed Rail Authority’s new cost estimates released Tuesday show the initial stretch of construction between Merced and Bakersfield will cost $10 billion to $13.9 billion depending on how it’s built. Project planners had previously pegged the section at $6.8 billion.

And this is the part that they’re building first because it’s so cheap–not a lot of expensive real estate (or angry, politically powerful neighbors in the way).

Megan McArdle has some perspective on the mess. This is another of those inititatives that CA voters like to pass as they don’t have to provide any funding for their feel-good projects.


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