China: getting old far too fast

In fact, some scholars of the Indian economy are estimating a growth-rate crossover before 2020: when the Indian economy averages higher economic growth than China. And no scholars can usefully estimate political outcomes – how rapidly can India solve its governance problems?

For a look at the dynamics of the Indian economy, please read Edward Hugh, at Econmonitor, whose essay includes the above two graphics.

The relative demographics are huge. China has been benefiting from a bulge of working-age adults. That beneficial trend is now rapidly being reversed as the above charts indicate. Conversely, India is just beginning to benefit from a working-age bulge, which will be smoother and longer-lasting than China’s experience.