My conclusion is that hundred-dollar oil is here to stay.
Prof. James Hamilton, UC San Diego, has updated his global analysis of the oil markets. This is the most up-to-date authoritative resource that I know of — which I do not see how I could summarize better than Jim’s last sentence.
There are heaps of tables and sixteen figures. Figure 3 tells the main story about high oil prices. Figure 16 shows elegantly the ongoing revolution in US tight oil and gas.
Figure 16. U.S. field production of crude oil, by source, 1860-2013, in millions of barrels per day. Data sources: Hamilton (2013) and EIA: Annual Energy Review Table 5.2; Crude Oil Production (http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_a.htm); Annual Energy Outlook 2014.